Yarra Valley Water | The Run Home - August 1st

rlong69
20 hours ago
15 min read

By Ryan Long.

Just two weeks left in Division Three Senior Men's competition with six teams trying to find a place in top five, while the finals race is wide open in Premier, One, Two and Four.

We take a look at each side's run home in the final weeks of the season and predict how each division's first week of the finals may look!

Premier Division

East Ringwood (12-2, 174.63%, 48 Points)

Round 15: Blackburn (H)

Round 16: Vermont (H)

Round 17: Balwyn (A)

Round 18: Rowville (H)

A weekend that officially locked up at least a double chance for both East Ringwood and Blackburn.

It doesn’t get much bigger than this as the two sides meet for the first time since a 73-point belting at Morton Park in Round Six.

Considering the Roos percentage, it’s hard to see them not finishing on top of the ladder for a second consecutive year if they win this weekend.

Prediction: 1st

Blackburn (12-2, 145.07%, 48 Points)

Round 15: East Ringwood (A)

Round 16: Mitcham (A)

Round 17: Berwick (H)

Round 18: Doncaster East (A)

Echoing what was previously mentioned above, this weekend is a massive challenge for Blackburn, which may dictate who finishes on top.

Arguably in better form than the Roos right now, and after their 73-point loss to East Ringwood earlier in the season, the Burners have plenty to prove.

Prediction: 2nd

Balwyn (10-4, 124.13%, 40 Points)

Round 15: Doncaster East (H)

Round 16: Noble Park (A)

Round 17: East Ringwood (H)

Round 18: Vermont (A)

Two games behind second, three games ahead of fourth. Almost a certainty from here that they’ll be playing off in this year’s Qualifying Final. That won't mind the Tigers who won the flag last season after starting their finals campaign, starting off in the Qualifying Final against Rowville.

Plenty of intrigue on their Round 17 clash against East Ringwood to see if they’ve made up ground on the last time the two sides met in Round Eight.

Prediction: 3rd

Rowville (7-7, 129.05%, 28 Points)

Round 15: Berwick (H)

Round 16: Doncaster East (A)

Round 17: Mitcham (H)

Round 18: East Ringwood (A)

An interrupted 2025 season sees the Hawks looking at a potential Elimination Final.

They aren’t officially ruled out of a double chance, even if it is doubtful. The Hawks are also not locked in for the finals yet, either. Winnable games in their next three weeks, but they did lose to both Berwick and Doncaster East earlier in the year so they'll be wary.

A loss this weekend would see the pressure grow as they head out to Zerbes Reserve.

Prediction: 4th

Noble Park (7-7, 83.11%, 28 Points)

Round 15: Vermont (H)

Round 16: Balwyn (H)

Round 17: Doncaster East (H)

Round 18: South Croydon (A)

Three home games for the Bulls as they cling to the final spot in the top five.

Both Doncaster East and South Croydon narrowed the gap this weekend, now just one game separating them from the Bulls. Interestingly enough, they meet both sides in Rounds 17 and 18 to finish off the season.

Considering the way South Croydon are playing and factoring in the Dogs' run home, they look the bigger threat of the two to overtake Noble.

Before then, they need to take care of business against the Eagles, who have had Noble Park’s measure in recent encounters.

Prediction: 6th

Doncaster East (6-8, 97.77%, 24 Points)

Round 15: Balwyn (A)

Round 16: Rowville (H)

Round 17: Noble Park (A)

Round 18: Blackburn (H)

Kept finals hopes alive with a twelve-point victory over Mitcham on the weekend.

Despite a better percentage than South Croydon, the Lions have a much tougher run home, which complicates things for Doncaster East. All four remaining games against the current top five sides, likely need at least three wins as a minimum.

A superior percentage over the sides around them certainly gives them the edge if they can even up on points.

Prediction: 7th

South Croydon (6-8, 82.03%, 24 Points)

Round 15: Mitcham (H)

Round 16: Berwick (A)

Round 17: Vermont (A)

Round 18: Noble Park (H)

From 0-5 to 6-8, with a very good run home to finish out the season, playing the three sides below them on the ladder, and finishing off with Noble Park at Cheong.

If they continue this form, they may win all four games, which would almost certainly see them playing off in a second consecutive finals series.

Noble Park in the final round of the season could be an Elimination Final, coming a week early.

Prediction: 5th

Vermont (5-9, 77.57%, 20 Points)

Round 15: Noble Park (A)

Round 16: East Ringwood (A)

Round 17: South Croydon (H)

Round 18: Balwyn (H)

Can put a line through their finals aspirations, well off the pace now.

This weekend’s game at Pat Wright Senior Oval looks like their best opportunity to get their sixth win of the year. After that, it’s two of the top-three and a red-hot South Croydon outfit hunting a spot in the top five.

Prediction: 8th

Berwick (4-10, 77.03%, 16 Points)

Round 15: Rowville (A)

Round 16: South Croydon (H)

Round 17: Blackburn (A)

Round 18: Mitcham (H)

Honourable losses are starting to turn into impressive victories as Berwick cement their position in the Premier Division.

There are certainly a couple of more potential wins here in the final month of the season.

Prediction: 9th

Mitcham (1-13, 77.03%, 4 Points)

Round 15: South Croydon (A)

Round 16: Blackburn (H)

Round 17: Rowville (A)

Round 18: Berwick (A)

The result against the Lions on Saturday summed up what their year in the Premier has been like for the most part. Six games this season have been lost by two goals or fewer.

Unfortunately for Mitcham, Berwick has won two of their last three to increase the gap between ninth and tenth.

Prediction: 10th

Premier Division Projected First week of Finals:

BYE - East Ringwood

Qualifying Final: Blackburn v Balwyn

Elimination Final: Rowville v South Croydon

DIVISION ONE

South Belgrave (12-1, 207.48%, 48 Points)

Round 16: Bayswater (H)

Round 17: Mooroolbark (A)

Round 18: Montrose (H)

A 28-point win over the Hawks keeps South Belgrave on top of the ladder.

With the Sharks still hot on their tail, they’ll need to keep winning to guarantee the Minor Premiership.

Back-to-back games against Bayswater and Mooroolbark, I expect them to do just that.

Prediction: 1st

Park Orchards (12-2, 138.75%, 48 Points)

Round 16: Boronia (H)

Round 17: BYE

Round 18: Beaconsfield (A)

Flown under the radar because of how dominant South Belgrave have been this season.

With their last two games against Boronia and Beaconsfield, they’ll get a good look at their likely match-up for the Qualifying Final.

Mathematically able to finish on top but still relying on the Saints to drop both games, while the Sharks win both of theirs.

Prediction: 2nd

Boronia (8-5, 114.07%, 32 Points)

Round 16: Park Orchards (A)

Round 17: Norwood (A)

Round 18: Mooroolbark (H)

The wins the Hawks accumulated in the previous two weeks meant a loss to South Belgrave wasn’t going to hurt their double chance hopes.

Win out and they’ll get the double chance. A loss to Park Orchards, and they’ll need the Eagles and Demons to both lose at least one of their last three, or it’ll come down to a percentage battle, which is too early to call.

Prediction: 3rd

Beaconsfield (7-6, 118.77%, 28 Points)

Round 16: Norwood (H)

Round 17: Bayswater (A)

Round 18: Park Orchards (H)

After a couple of shaky performances, Beaconsfield had to respond and respond they did.

Not only did they win, but they also gained a substantial percentage that even surpasses third-placed Boronia. This opens up the possibility of a double chance for the Eagles.

Win all three games, which includes a second meeting with Park Orchards, and Boronia lose one of their last three, the percentage will then decide their position.

For now, they’ve got another opportunity to work on building that percentage up as they face Norwood.

Prediction: 4th

Montrose (7-6, 115.15%, 28 Points)

Round 16: Mooroolbark (H)

Round 17: North Ringwood (A)

Round 18: South Belgrave (A)

Three vital weeks of football have turned things around for Montrose, who, a few rounds ago, looked one loss away from falling apart for the season.

Percentage booster against Norwood, they could add to that against local rivals, Mooroolbark this weekend.

To put it simply, win this week, they’ll get the Round 17 clash against North Ringwood as an opportunity to lock in a finals birth and rule out the Saints.

They'll want to lock this away without needing to get a win at Belgrave South Recreation Reserve in Round 18.

Prediction: 5th

North Ringwood (7-7, 104.46%, 28 Points)

Round 16: BYE

Round 17: Montrose (H)

Round 18: Bayswater (A)

We knew the Bye late in the year was going to hurt North Ringwood.

No question now, must win game in Round 17 against Montrose if the Saints are to make the top five from here.

Assuming the Demons beat the Mustangs this Saturday, while the Saints have the bye, North Ringwood will be a game and percentage out. So not only would they need to beat Montrose, but they also can’t slip up against Bayswater in and will still be hoping South Belgrave puts away the Dees in Round 18.

The Dees' late revival of form, percentage gap and the current fixture make things tough.

Prediction: 6th

Mooroolbark (4-9, 76.48%, 16 Points)

Round 16: Montrose (A)

Round 17: South Belgrave (H)

Round 18: Boronia (A)

A disappointing day on Saturday, well beaten by a Beaconsfield side that was desperate to get back on the winners list.

Prediction: 7th

Bayswater (3-10, 68.29%, 12 Points)

Round 16: South Belgrave (A)

Round 17: Beaconsfield (H)

Round 18: North Ringwood (H)

Three weeks to play, all tough encounters starting with a trip up to South Belgrave.

Prediction: 8th

Norwood (0-15, 39.52%, 0 Points)

Round 16: Beaconsfield (A)

Round 17: Boronia (H)

Round 18: BYE

Finish with the Bye in Round 18, two finals contenders to face before then.

Prediction: 9th

Division One Projected First week of Finals:

BYE - South Belgrave

Qualifying Final: Park Orchards v Boronia

Elimination Final: Beaconsfield v Montrose

Division Two

Templestowe (13-2, 169.58%, 52 Points)

Round 16: Ringwood (A)

Round 17: East Burwood (A)

Round 18: Mulgrave (H)

In great form as they close out the year, sitting a game and percentage clear on top of the ladder.

Two wins out of their last three can lock up the Minor Premiership. The real test will come at finals time to see if this momentum and form line carries into September at Walker Park.

Prediction: 1st

Wantirna South (12-3, 131.98%, 48 Points)

Round 16: Waverley Blues (A)

Round 17: Mulgrave (A)

Round 18: Croydon (H)

Liam Hewett put on a show for the Devils as their unbeaten run at Walker Reserve continued with an emphatic win over the Jets.

Still in the hunt for top spot, but unlikely to get there with the way the Dockers are finishing out the year.

Prediction: 2nd

Surrey Park (10-5, 110.90%, 40 Points)

Round 16: Lilydale (H)

Round 17: Waverley Blues (H)

Round 18: East Burwood (A)

It was always going to be a big ask to go across to Templestowe Reserve and knock off an in-form Dockers line-up.

What helped the Panthers this weekend was Croydon’s big win over Mulgrave. It keeps the Panthers safe in third for another week.

Compare both clubs' run homes, and you can almost certainly say that Surrey Park will finish the year in third, which would be an incredible achievement for a side going up a division for the second consecutive season.

Prediction: 3rd

Mulgrave (9-6, 110.31%, 36 Points)

Round 16: Heathmont (A)

Round 17: Wantirna South (H)

Round 18: Templestowe (A)

Must admit, didn’t see that loss coming, based on both Mulgrave's and Croydon's most recent form lines.

Double chance unlikely. Mathematically also not locked into the five yet, the Lions will guarantee that they’ll be there at Walker Park when the whips are cracking with a win over Heathmont this Saturday.

A loss to the Jets, however, and things become a little more interesting.

Prediction: 4th

Croydon (7-8, 87.38%, 29 Points)

Round 16: East Burwood (A)

Round 17: Ringwood (H)

Round 18: Wantirna South (A)

After a 130-point loss to the Dockers, Croydon hit the road and knocked off the Lions by 36 points to jump into fifth.

A perfect weekend for the Blues, Heathmont and Waverley Blues dropping games has given back control to Croydon. Win all three and they’re locked in for September. Two wins also would be enough unless any of the three sides below them win out.

They’ll enter their next two games as favourites, win both and have a couple of other results go their way as well, they’ll be sitting pretty.

Prediction: 5th

Heathmont (6-9, 94.51%, 24 Points)

Round 16: Mulgrave (H)

Round 17: Lilydale (A)

Round 18: Waverley Blues (A)

Croydon's win over Mulgrave has added a lot of difficulty to the Jets chances of finishing the year inside the top five.

Best case scenario for the Jets is to win their last three games of the season and hope Croydon drop at least one. Percentage is the biggest thing they have going for them right now, even after their 83-point loss to the Devils, they still sit at 94%.

Another must win game this weekend.

Prediction: 6th

Waverley Blues (6-9, 85.39%, 24 Points)

Round 16: Wantirna South (H)

Round 17: Surrey Park (A)

Round 18: Heathmont (H)

Unfortunately for the Waverley Blues, they couldn’t afford a loss at Jubilee Park ahead of a very hard three weeks to finish the season. On top of the loss to the Redbacks, Croydon knocked off the Lions and jumped a game ahead, with a strong run home.

We believe nine wins will be the lucky number, possibly eight with a superior percentage.

It’s difficult to see the Waverley Blues winning all three, huge test tomorrow as they welcome the Devils to Central Reserve.

Prediction: 8th

Ringwood (6-9, 76.49%, 24 Points)

Round 16: Templestowe (H)

Round 17: Croydon (A)

Round 18: Lilydale (H)

The Redbacks increased their odds of a late finals run, defeating the Waverley Blues and moving to a record of 6-9.

Croydon’s win over Mulgrave doesn’t help the Redbacks, but they do face them on the run home.

It will still be quite difficult for the Redbacks to make it from here, especially considering they face ladder-leaders Templestowe this weekend. Eight wins with their current percentage almost certainly won’t be enough; too many results would have to go their way.

Need to win out from here to give themselves the best chance of featuring in September.

Prediction: 7th

East Burwood (4-11, 90.77%, 16 Points)

Round 16: Croydon (H)

Round 17: Templestowe (H)

Round 18: Surrey Park (H)

Not too many sides sit ninth with a percentage of 90, so that is a positive for the Rams.

The Rams' victory on Saturday also secures their future in Division Two, with three tough games to finish off the year, all at home.

Prediction: 9th

Lilydale (2-12, 63.70%, 8 Points)

Round 16: Surrey Park (A)

Round 17: Heathmont (H)

Round 18: Ringwood (A)

Unfortunately for the Falcons, Saturday was a must-win game to stay in the division. With their percentage gap, they’re three games behind.

Prediction: 10th

Division Two Projected First week of Finals:

BYE - Templestowe

Qualifying Final: Wantirna South v Surrey Park

Elimination Final: Mulgrave v Croydon

Division Three

Donvale (14-2, 202.19%, 56 Points)

Round 17: Scoresby (A)

Round 18: Knox (H)

The momentum has swung back in favour of the Magpies of Donvale. A one-point win over Upper Ferntree Gully, combined with Silvan’s upset victory over Scoresby, now gives Donvale some room for error.

Two big games to finish the year, beat Scoresby on Saturday, and they clinch the Minor Premiership. A loss and due to their great percentage, a win against Knox in Round 18 would be enough for a third consecutive Minor Premiership.

Predicted Finish: 1st

Scoresby (13-3, 178.78%, 52 Points)

Round 17: Donvale (H)

Round 18: Upper Ferntree Gully (A)

Yet another side this season to lose at Silvan Recreation Reserve. It’s a costly one for the Magpies, with Donvale sneaking over the line against Upper Ferntree Gully.

There is still a possibility to finish on top, must beat Donvale this weekend, and then all attention turns to Round 18 clashes at Kings Park and Donvale Reserve.

It's a big weekend for the club as they celebrate their centenary year.

Predicted Finish: 2nd

Knox (11-5, 115.89%, 44 Points)

Round 17: The Basin (H)

Round 18: Donvale (A)

One more win to officially lock in the double chance.

The only way they miss the top three from here is if they lose both games and Upper Gully wins out.

If they do finish third, they’ll likely meet Scoresby, who have defeated the Falcons twice by comfortable margins this season.

Prediction: 3rd

Upper Ferntree Gully (9-7, 131.72%, 36 Points)

Round 17: Coldstream (A)

Round 18: Scoresby (H)

A strong performance against the ladder leaders, the game finishing with a shot after the siren. Unfortunately for Upper Ferntree Gully, they fall a point short, and hopes of a double chance are just about done.

They aren’t officially locked into finals yet, but with a percentage of 131, both the Bears and Cats would need to finish a game clear of the Kings for them to finish sixth.

The likely outcome from here is an Elimination Final on Sunday, 17th August.

Predicted Finish: 4th

The Basin (9-7, 92.08%, 36 Points)

Round 17: Knox (A)

Round 18: Oakleigh District (H)

The Bears did what they had to against Fairpark, importantly keeping themselves one game clear of Silvan. They were hoping Scoresby would do them the favour of knocking off the Cats for some extra breathing room, but the Bears still maintain control of their fate.

Win their last two? Lock in finals.

Win one of their last two? Percentage enters the conversation if Silvan wins out and Upper Ferntree Gully wins at least one game.

Can secure their spot this weekend with a win over Knox and a Ferntree Gully win over Silvan.

Prediction: 5th

Silvan (8-8, 85.63%, 32 Points)

Round 17: Ferntree Gully (A)

Round 18: Coldstream (A)

Incredible!

The Cats knocked off a red-hot Scoresby side at home and will finish the season with a record of 8-1 at home.

However, with a polar opposite record on the road, 0-7, with two away games to finish the year, Silvan still may miss out on a place in the top five.

If they can beat both Ferntree Gully and Coldstream, and The Basin lose just one of their final two games, it’ll all come down to percentage.

Prediction: 6th

Ferntree Gully (6-10, 79.05%, 24 Points)

Round 17: Silvan (H)

Round 18: Fairpark (A)

Completely different side from last weekend, a week’s a long time in football.

Realistic chance that they can win their final two games, particularly factoring in Silvan’s away record.

Difficult to know what to expect from the Eagles in the last two weeks of the season.

Prediction: 7th

Oakleigh District (5-11, 83.48%, 20 Points)

Round 17: Fairpark (H)

Round 18: The Basin (A)

Dark afternoon for Oakleigh District last Saturday, completely outplayed by a Ferntree Gully side that managed just one goal the weekend prior.

Prediction: 8th

Coldstream (3-13, 64.34%, 12 Points)

Round 17: Upper Ferntree Gully (H)

Round 18: Silvan (H)

A loss last weekend doesn’t change too much with Fairpark also going down to the Bears.

Even if they lose both games, they’ll remain ninth if Fairpark lose at least one of their next two.

Prediction: 9th

Fairpark (2-14, 53.62%, 8 Points)

Round 17: Oakleigh District (A)

Round 18: Ferntree Gully (H)

The Lions scenario hasn’t changed: Win two games with Coldstream lose two, and they’ll get off the bottom of the Division Three ladder.

Any Coldstream win or Fairpark loss in the final fortnight will confirm relegation for the club.

Prediction: 10th

Division Three Projected First week of Finals:

BYE - Donvale

Qualifying Final: Scoresby v Knox

Elimination Final: Upper Ferntree Gully v The Basin

Division Four

Chirnside Park (11-2, 165.65%, 44 Points)

Round 16: Warrandyte (H)

Round 17: Kilsyth (A)

Round 18: BYE

Another great win for the Panthers as they lock in the Minor Premiership for Division Four this season. The bye in Round 18 can either be a blessing or a curse.

They remain the side to beat in Division Four. The question is, can they translate their great Home and Away form into the finals?

Prediction: 1st

Whitehorse (8-5, 116.06%, 32 Points)

Round 16: Kilsyth (H)

Round 17: Warrandyte (A)

Round 18: Forest Hill (H)

A much better performance against Chirnside Park after the last time the two sides met out at Springfield Park.

Need to keep winning to protect their position in the top two, both Kilsyth and Warrandyte are a game behind, and there isn’t much difference in terms of percentage.

Still trust the Pioneers to win at the very least two of their last three and finish in the top two.

Prediction: 2nd

Kilsyth (7-6, 116.95%, 28 Points)

Round 16: Whitehorse (A)

Round 17: Chirnside Park (H)

Round 18: Bulleen Templestowe (A)

Once again, a week in football is a long time.

It wasn’t just the win, it’s the fact that they have boosted the line-up with a couple of big recruits in Jeff Gobbels and Jackson Drake that could shape the way the Division Four season finishes.

The run home doesn’t change, it’s still tough, their next two weeks against Whitehorse and Chirnside Park will test them, but cannot undersell just how important that victory over Warrandyte was.

This might still come down to the wire.

Prediction: 3rd

Warrandyte (7-6, 109.85%, 28 Points)

Round 16: Chirnside Park (A)

Round 17: Whitehorse (H)

Round 18: Croydon North MLOC (H)

The bye may not have come at the right time for Warrandyte, considering how good they were previously.

Like Kilsyth, they play the top two sides in back-to-back weeks. Echoing the statements above, this could come down to the wire, making it extremely difficult to predict.

They’ve beaten Chirnside Park once; no reason why they can’t do it again. Depending on other results, they may have to win at least one of their next two.

Prediction: 5th

5. Croydon North MLOC (6-6, 104.46%, 24 Points)

Round 16: Bulleen Templestowe (H)

Round 17: Forest Hill (A)

Round 18: Warrandyte (A)

We previously thought Kilsyth was the most vulnerable of the four teams inside the top four, but it might be Warrandyte that the KangaRams can set their eyes on.

The two sides will meet in Round 18, if results go Croydon North MLOC’s way, that clash might be for the fourth spot. Match Ratio will also be involved with Croydon North MLOC, playing one game less this season than both Kilsyth and Warrandyte. In simple terms, as long as they finish on the same amount of wins as either side above them, they'll get in.

However, no point looking that far down the track yet; they meet the Bullants, who beat the KangaRams just two weeks ago. Must win this weekend.

Prediction: 4th

6. Bulleen Templestowe (6-7, 105.71%, 20 Points)

Round 16: Croydon North MLOC (A)

Round 17: BYE

Round 18: Kilsyth (H)

Three in a row for the Bullants has put Bulleen Templestowe in contention for a late finals charge.

With a Bye in Round 17, this weekend is a must-win game for the Bullants.

If they can knock off the KangaRams, beat Kilsyth in Round 18, and some other results go their way, then who knows

Prediction: 6th

7. Forest Hill (0-13, 36.22%, 0 Points)

Round 16: BYE