YvWater The Run Home

12 hours ago
14 min read

A very tight Division One top four makes for a fascinating finish to the season with one side set to be the unlucky team that misses the double chance, while Division Four becomes wide open as new premiership contenders emerge!

We take a look at each side's run home and predict who finishes where, who's likely to play finals and who's in relegation strife!

Premier Division

1. East Ringwood (12-1, 176.05%)

Round 14: Berwick (H)

Round 15: Rowville (A)

Round 16: South Belgrave (H)

Round 17: Vermont (H)

Round 18: Doncaster East (A)

Big win on the road moves East Ringwood to a 12- 1 record as they enter the split round bye weekend.

16 wins with their percentage should see the Roos finish on top.

Prediction: 1st

2. Rowville (10-2, 156.41%)

Round 13: South Belgrave (A)

Round 14: Blackburn (A)

Round 15: East Ringwood (H)

Round 16: Berwick (A)

Round 17: Doncaster East (H)

Round 18: Balwyn (H)

A Blackburn win over East Ringwood would have been handy for the Hawks, who had the weekend off.

Top spot is still in their sights; clearly, their game against East Ringwood at Seebeck is a must-win if they are to get there.

Prediction: 2nd

3. Doncaster East (10-3, 113.17%)

Round 14: South Croydon (H)

Round 15: Blackburn (H)

Round 16: Balwyn (A)

Round 17: Rowville (A)

Round 18: East Ringwood (H)

Another good weekend for Doncaster East, a win, tied with Blackburn’s loss, has given the Lions a three-game lead in third spot.

Three wins from their last five will secure the double chance; two from five is likely still enough.

Their final two games of the year are the perfect finals preparation for the Lions.

Prediction: 3rd

4. Berwick (7-6, 113.78%)

Round 14: East Ringwood (A)

Round 15: Noble Park (H)

Round 16: Rowville (H)

Round 17: Blackburn (A)

Round 18: Vermont (A)

In fourth spot and will remain in fourth with their percentage after the conclusion of the Split Round.

Still, the biggest challenge that faces Berwick is its difficult run home. East Ringwood, Rowville and Blackburn all to come before their Round 18 clash with the Eagles.

Likely need a minimum of 10 wins to get in… a big scalp over the Roos or Hawks would help immensely!

Prediction: 6th

4. Blackburn (7-6, 110.42%)

Round 14: Rowville (H)

Round 15: Doncaster East (A)

Round 16: Noble Park (A)

Round 17: Berwick (H)

Round 18: South Belgrave (A)

Forget the double chance, Blackburn just needs to find some form to stay inside the top five.

Round 17 game at Morton Park against Berwick might shape up as an early Elimination Final for one of the two sides.

If they can find a victory in their next two games, it will without a doubt ease the pressure that’s starting to build.

Prediction: 5th

6. Vermont (6-6, 97.90%)

Round 13: Balwyn (H)

Round 14: Noble Park (H)

Round 15: South Belgrave (H)

Round 16: South Croydon (H)

Round 17: East Ringwood (A)

Round 18: Berwick (H)

A stretch of home games in the run home, five of six at Vermont Recreation Reserve.

On form, they probably enter their next four as the favourites. Five wins in their last six games would earn the Eagles a spot. Anything less and the percentage also comes into play, which doesn't favour Vermont.

The focus right now will be solely on this weekend’s clash with Balwyn.

Prediction: 4th

7. Balwyn (5-1-6, 81.24%)

Round 13: Vermont (A)

Round 14: South Belgrave (H)

Round 15: South Croydon (A)

Round 16: Doncaster East (H)

Round 17: Noble Park (H)

Round 18: Rowville (A)

A weekend off may be what the Tigers needed, particularly with the departure of senior coach Brenton Sanderson.

Must-win clash with the Eagles this weekend. If they can get across the line, suddenly the possibilities open up for Balwyn, who still have to play the bottom three in their last five.

Prediction: 7th

8. South Croydon (3-1-9, 68.38%)

Round 14: Doncaster East (A)

Round 15: Balwyn (H)

Round 16: Vermont (A)

Round 17: South Belgrave (A)

Round 18: Noble Park (H)

As mentioned last week, all games mean something for their opposition, so they can play nuisance value and throw off a few teams in their quest for finals or to avoid relegation.

Prediction: 8th

9. South Belgrave (1-11, 71.56%)

Round 13: Rowville (H)

Round 14: Balwyn (A)

Round 15: Vermont (A)

Round 16: East Ringwood (A)

Round 17: South Croydon (H)

Round 18: Blackburn (H)

If they can't beat Rowville this weekend, then at the very least, they can’t afford to be blown off the park with their current percentage lead over Noble Park.

Prediction: 10th

10. Noble Park (1-12, 63.59%)

Round 14: Vermont (A)

Round 15: Berwick (A)

Round 16: Blackburn (H)

Round 17: Balwyn (A)

Round 18: South Croydon (A)

A big Rowville win over South Belgrave will be what the Bulls faithful will be rooting for this weekend, as the side has the weekend off.

Prediction: 9th

PROJECTED FINALS SERIES:

BYE: East Ringwood

Qualifying Final: Rowville v Doncaster East

Elimination Final: Vermont v Blackburn

Division One

1. North Ringwood (11-2, 154.71%)

Round 14: Wantirna South (H)

Round 15: Norwood (A)

Round 16: Montrose (A)

Round 17: Mooroolbark (H)

Round 18: Boronia (A)

Two losses for the year, and they’ve both come against Mitcham. With the results going the way they did for North Ringwood this weekend, they now have three very good sides right on their tail, including Wantirna South, who they face this weekend at Quambee Reserve.

With how tight the division is, this weekend’s game cannot be undersold.

Prediction: 1st

2. Wantirna South (10-1-2, 128.49%)

Round 14: North Ringwood (A)

Round 15: Park Orchards (H)

Round 16: Boronia (A)

Round 17: Bayswater (A)

Round 18: Mitcham (H)

Best win of the season for the Devils? That is a huge result for Wantirna South in what is becoming one of the tightest top fours of all divisions.

They still have the toughest run home of all top five sides, but they’ve already ticked one box with their win over Montrose.

A loss this weekend and they’ll drop to third… a win and suddenly they’re on top of the ladder and the frontrunner for the Minor Premiership.

Prediction: 4th

3. Mitcham (10-3, 162.07%)

Round 14: Park Orchards (H)

Round 15: Mooroolbark (A)

Round 16: Beaconsfield (H)

Round 17: Montrose (H)

Round 18: Wantirna South (A)

It was a must-win game, and the Tigers did just that, defeating North Ringwood for the second time this season.

However, with the Sharks and Devils also winning, it hasn’t given the Tigers any extra comfort within the top three.

A loss this weekend to Park Orchards and they’ll be sitting fourth, starting to rely on other results to go their way as well as their own… Win, and they’ll be confident in getting there.

Prediction: 3rd

4. Park Orchards (10-3, 138.13%)

Round 14: Mitcham (A)

Round 15: Wantirna South (A)

Round 16: Bayswater (H)

Round 17: Boronia (A)

Round 18: Mooroolbark (H)

The Sharks keep winning, but unfortunately for them, so do the Devils and Tigers.

Two massive road trips to Walker Park and Walker Reserve will play an enormous role in determining where all three sides will finish at the end of the season.

As mentioned, one unlucky side will miss the double chance. What Park Orchards has in their favour is that their last three games are against teams outside of the top five.

Way too close to be predicting!

Prediction: 2nd

5. Montrose (7-6, 133.27%)

Round 14: Norwood (A)

Round 15: Boronia (A)

Round 16: North Ringwood (H)

Round 17: Mitcham (A)

Round 18: Beaconsfield (A)

Back-to-back losses at home have the pressure rising at Montrose.

Thanks to their percentage, a loss against Boronia in a couple of weeks won't push them outside the top five. But it would make the final three weeks of the season very intriguing.

Defeat Boronia in Round 15 and they will guarantee themselves a spot.

Prediction: 5th

6. Boronia (6-7, 93.23%)

Round 14: Bayswater (A)

Round 15: Montrose (H)

Round 16: Wantirna South (H)

Round 17: Park Orchards (H)

Round 18: North Ringwood (H)

There’s a pulse…the Hawks were done a big favour by Wantirna South on the weekend, opening the door for an unlikely finals appearance.

It’s still a very tough road ahead, but there is at least a pathway. If results go the way they’re expected this weekend, Boronia could draw level with Montrose with a win in Round 15 against the Dees.

Their percentage is so far behind that they are required to win an extra game to get into fifth.

Prediction: 6th

7. Mooroolbark (4-1-8, 90.19%)

Round 14: Beaconsfield (A)

Round 15: Mitcham (H)

Round 16: Norwood (H)

Round 17: North Ringwood (A)

Round 18: Park Orchards (A)

Expected win on the weekend, a couple of more winnable games on the run home, set to finish the year in 7th or 8th.

Prediction: 8th

8. Beaconsfield (4-9, 97.55%)

Round 14: Mooroolbark (H)

Round 15: Bayswater (H)

Round 16: Mitcham (A)

Round 17: Norwood (A)

Round 18: Montrose (H)

Similar boat to the Mustangs, some winnable games in the last five. Look, the more likely side is to knock off one of the top-five teams in the final month of the year.

Prediction: 7th

9. Norwood (2-10, 57.07%)

Round 14: Montrose (H)

Round 15: North Ringwood (H)

Round 16: Mooroolbark (A)

Round 17: Beaconsfield (H)

Round 18: Bayswater (A)

Improvements are sighted each week. Can they take another big scalp on the run home?

Prediction: 9th

10. Bayswater (0-13, 33.88%)

Round 14: Boronia (H)

Round 15: Beaconsfield (A)

Round 16: Park Orchards (A)

Round 17: Wantirna South (H)

Round 18: Norwood (H)

Difficult to see where their first win of the season is coming from, Bayswater has fallen well behind Norwood the longer the season has gone.

Prediction: 10th

PROJECTED FINALS SERIES:

BYE: North Ringwood

Qualifying Final: Park Orchards v Mitcham

Elimination Final: Wantirna South v Montrose

Division Two

1. Surrey Park (12-1, 155.19%)

Round 14: East Burwood (A)

Round 15: Heathmont (H)

Round 16: Mulgrave (H)

Round 17: Lilydale (A)

Round 18: Croydon (A)

Every win puts Surrey Park closer to a Minor Premiership.

A good lead into the finals with games to finish the season against potential finalists in Mulgrave, Lilydale and Croydon.

Prediction: 1st

2. Templestowe (11-2, 133.77%)

Round 14: Lilydale (A)

Round 15: Scoresby (H)

Round 16: East Burwood (H)

Round 17: Waverley Blues (A)

Round 18: Ringwood (H)

A gutsy win at home with some key outs this weekend against the Blues.

Another big challenge against a Lilydale side who blitzed them in the first half earlier this year at Templestowe Reserve.

Prediction: 2nd

3. Mulgrave (8-5, 119.96%)

Round 14: Heathmont (A)

Round 15: Lilydale (H)

Round 16: Surrey Park (A)

Round 17: Croydon (H)

Round 18: East Burwood (A)

Another mature win on the weekend, confident in the Lions making the finals from here after a mid-season slump.

Their most important games on the run home are against Lilydale in Round 15 and Croydon in Round 17, with these clubs the most likely threat to take the double chance from the Lions.

Prediction: 3rd

4. Lilydale (8-5, 107.93%)

Round 14: Templestowe (H)

Round 15: Mulgrave (A)

Round 16: Heathmont (A)

Round 17: Surrey Park (H)

Round 18: Scoresby (A)

Big time win against the Rams has Lilydale one step closer to finals footy.

An important victory considering they still have to face all three top sides on the run home.

Pencil in that Round 15 clash at Mulgrave Reserve as a significant one if the Falcons can try and pinch the double chance!

Prediction: 4th

5. Croydon (7-6, 99.67%)

Round 14: Ringwood (H)

Round 15: Waverley Blues (H)

Round 16: Scoresby (A)

Round 17: Mulgrave (A)

Round 18: Surrey Park (H)

Not the worst result for Croydon, competitive against one of the benchmark sides in the division on the weekend.

A 24 per cent differential between Croydon and the Waverley Blues means it’s essentially a two-game difference.

If they win the games they’re expected to, they should be back playing finals footy.

Prediction: 5th

6. Waverley Blues (6-7, 75.18%)

Round 14: Scoresby (H)

Round 15: Croydon (A)

Round 16: Ringwood (A)

Round 17: Templestowe (H)

Round 18: Heathmont (H)

Percentage took another hit, and the side fell another game behind Lilydale and Mulgrave.

Realistically, from here, Croydon would have to be the one side that they could possibly overtake. They will need to finish a game clear of the Blues to finish in the top five due to their poor percentage.

It’s a fair run home, but they must win at the very least four of their last five.

Prediction: 6th

7. East Burwood (4-9, 103.58%)

Round 14: Surrey Park (H)

Round 15: Ringwood (H)

Round 16: Templestowe (A)

Round 17: Heathmont (H)

Round 18: Mulgrave (H)

A disappointing result for the Rams on the weekend.

They’ll play four of their last five games on their home deck to finish out the season.

Prediction: 7th

8. Heathmont (4-8, 77.12%)

Round 14: Mulgrave (H)

Round 15: Surrey Park (A)

Round 16: Lilydale (H)

Round 17: East Burwood (A)

Round 18: Waverley Blues (A)

Same position as the Rams with a 4-8 record, ruling them out of finals contention.

Prediction: 8th

9. Scoresby (3-10, 78.14%)

Round 14: Waverley Blues (A)

Round 15: Templestowe (A)

Round 16: Croydon (H)

Round 17: Ringwood (A)

Round 18: Lilydale (H)

Huge result for the Magpies, off the bottom of the Division Two ladder and a little bump to their percentage to give themselves some extra breathing room from Ringwood.

Based on form, there’s a big chance of a win at Mount Waverley Reserve this weekend. Any wins prior to their clash at Jubilee Park will put the Magpies in a great position to survive Division Two.

Prediction: 9th

10. Ringwood (2-11, 71.93%)

Round 14: Croydon (A)

Round 15: East Burwood (A)

Round 16: Waverley Blues (H)

Round 17: Scoresby (H)

Round 18: Templestowe (A)

A weekend that very much hurts their chances of survival in Division Two. Scoresby’s win also boosted their percentage, so even if they do defeat the Magpies in Round 17, that still might not be enough.

Can they get a win in their next three games prior to Round 17?

Prediction: 10th

PROJECTED FINALS SERIES:

BYE: Surrey Park

Qualifying Final: Templestowe v Mulgrave

Elimination Final: Lilydale v Croydon

Division Three

1. Donvale (11-1, 277.40%)

Round 15: The Basin (A)

Round 16: Ferntree Gully (H)

Round 17: Upper Ferntree Gully (A)

Round 18: Knox (H)

Last bye of the season for the Magpies, they can take another step forward towards securing the Minor Premiership this weekend with a win over The Basin. Lose, and they’ll need to win their final three games of the season to officially secure the first week of the finals bye.

Prediction: 1st

2. Upper Ferntree Gully (11-2, 193.72%)

Round 15: Bye

Round 16: Whitehorse (A)

Round 17: Donvale (H)

Round 18: Ferntree Gully (A)

A bye this weekend for Upper Ferntree Gully.

As mentioned last week, they are well positioned for the Qualifying Final at Wally Tew Reserve.

A lot would have to go in their favour to take top spot.

Prediction: 3rd

3. The Basin (10-2, 202.98%)

Round 15: Donvale (H)

Round 16: Knox (H)

Round 17: Coldstream (A)

Round 18: Whitehorse (A)

Any hope of a Minor Premiership comes down to this weekend’s clash with Donvale at Batterham Reserve.

A win here and all top three sides will be sitting on 11-2, but with the Magpies' superior percentage, The Basin will still be requiring Donvale to drop one of their last three.

Prediction: 2nd

4. Knox (7-5, 115.82%)

Round 15: Oakleigh District (H)

Round 16: The Basin (A)

Round 17: Whitehorse (H)

Round 18: Donvale (A)

A strong win out at Coldstream Reserve puts a three-game gap between the Falcons and Cougars.

They’re yet to defeat a top-three side this season, so two opportunities on the run home to change that.

Prediction: 5th

5. Silvan (7-5, 98.29%)

Round 15: Whitehorse (A)

Round 16: Coldstream (H)

Round 17: Bye

Round 18: Oakleigh District (A)

A little disappointing for the Cats, who over the last month have been unable to find a win against the top teams of the division.

Will enter their last three matches as favourites, but whether their fourth or fifth, they’re looking at a date with the Falcons in the Elimination Final.

Prediction: 4th

6. Coldstream (4-9, 73.19%)

Round 15: Ferntree Gully (A)

Round 16: Silvan (A)

Round 17: The Basin (H)

Round 18: Bye

Finish the year with the bye, but will be hoping to find a win or two from their last three matches.

Prediction: 6th

7. Whitehorse (3-9, 66.31%)

Round 15: Silvan (H)

Round 16: Upper Ferntree Gully (H)

Round 17: Knox (A)

Round 18: The Basin (H)

Lock the Pioneers into Division Three for another season. A win over Ferntree Gully gives the side some confidence heading into the final month of the season.

Attention will turn to what they need to go forward into season 2027 to turn them into a finals team.

Prediction: 7th

8. Ferntree Gully (2-10, 60.88%)

Round 15: Coldstream (H)

Round 16: Donvale (A)

Round 17: Oakleigh District (A)

Round 18: Upper Ferntree Gully (H)

We thought they could win three of their last five, including their clash at home against the Pioneers. However, they came up short by less than a kick.

The percentage gap gives the Gully safety even if Oakleigh District defeat the Eagles in Round 17.

Prediction: 8th

9. Oakleigh District (1-12, 33.82%)

Round 15: Knox (A)

Round 16: Bye

Round 17: Ferntree Gully (H)

Round 18: Silvan (H)

Three games left, still need at least two wins just to have a shot at staying up.

Prediction: 9th

PROJECTED FINALS SERIES:

BYE: Donvale

Qualifying Final: The Basin v Upper Ferntree Gully

Elimination Final: Silvan v Knox

Division Four

1. Warrandyte (9-1-1, 228.52%)

Round 14: Bulleen Templestowe (A)

Round 15: Fairpark (A)

Round 16: Croydon North MLOC (H)

Round 17: Forest Hill (A)

Round 18: Kilsyth (H)

Did enough against the Sharks, remaining on top of the ladder in a very tight top-four race.

Their next two weeks are season-defining, two away trips to Bulleen Templestowe and Fairpark.

Prediction: 1st

2. Bulleen Templestowe (9-3, 251.21%)

Round 14: Warrandyte (H)

Round 15: Forest Hill (H)

Round 16: Nunawading (A)

Round 17: Fairpark (H)

Round 18: BYE

A massive result for the context of their season, it absolutely gives the Bullants some confidence going into another big game against Warrandyte.

A win could carry their momentum into a double chance or Minor Premiership. Lose, and suddenly there’s a bit of pressure on the Bullants with their Round 17 clash against Fairpark and the last round of the season bye.

Prediction: 3rd

3. Fairpark (9-3, 215.77%)

Round 14: Croydon North MLOC (A)

Round 15: Warrandyte (H)

Round 16: BYE

Round 17: Bulleen Templestowe (A)

Round 18: Doncaster (H)

Expect the Lions to win this weekend before two big games against Warrandyte and Bulleen Templestowe.

May need to win both to secure a double chance; on the flip side, lose both, and they open themselves up to a potential late Kilsyth charge.

Prediction: 4th

4. Chirnside Park (8-3, 176.78%)

Round 14: Nunawading (A)

Round 15: Croydon North MLOC (A)

Round 16: Doncaster (H)

Round 17: Kilsyth (A)

Round 18: Forest Hill (H)

The weekend’s loss doesn’t do too much damage to Chirnside Park’s double chance hopes due to their run home and having played one less game than some of the others.

Therefore, it’s still difficult to see them missing from here despite Kilsyth closing the gap in fifth.

Win all five, and they should finish top two with the top three sides all playing one another.

Prediction: 2nd

5. Kilsyth (7-1-4, 152.94%)

Round 14: BYE

Round 15: Nunawading (H)

Round 16: Forest Hill (A)

Round 17: Chirnside Park (H)

Round 18: Warrandyte (A)

Despite closing the gap on Chirnside Park and sitting two points out of the top four, it’s a result they probably wish had gone the other way considering everyone’s run home.

They need to win out and are likely looking at either the Lions or Bullants to drop two of their last four games.

Can’t rule a line through them yet, but there’s still a lot to play that’s out of their control.

Prediction: 5th

6. Croydon North MLOC (4-8, 68.76%)

Round 14: Fairpark (H)

Round 15: Chirnside Park (H)

Round 16: Warrandyte (A)

Round 17: BYE

Round 18: Nunawading (H)

Finish the season at Cheong Park against Nunawading, most likely their only winnable game on the run home.

Prediction: 7th

7. Doncaster (3-8, 77.11%)