YvWater The Run Home

Jul 28
12 min read

It was another season-defining round for the Senior Men's competition as the race for the finals continues to heat up. We take a look at each side's run home and project the potential first week of the finals match up's.

Premier Division

1. East Ringwood (13-1, 170.68%)

Round 15: Rowville (A)

Round 16: South Belgrave (H)

Round 17: Vermont (H)

Round 18: Doncaster East (A)

With Rowville’s loss to Blackburn on the weekend, East Ringwood looks almost certain to finish on top of the Premier Division ladder.

A win this weekend will seal it, but even if they don’t get across the line, they still should do enough to finish on top and lock in the Minor Premiership.

Prediction: 1st

2. Rowville (11-3, 154.18%)

Round 15: East Ringwood (H)

Round 16: Berwick (A)

Round 17: Doncaster East (H)

Round 18: Balwyn (H)

Costly for their Minor Premiership hopes but no real concerns for the Hawks after the weekend.

Great test this weekend in a massive one v two clash against the Roos.

Prediction: 2nd

3. Doncaster East (10-4, 110.78%)

Round 15: Blackburn (H)

Round 16: Balwyn (A)

Round 17: Rowville (A)

Round 18: East Ringwood (H)

The worst-case scenario for Doncaster East this weekend is losing to South Croydon while Blackburn caused an upset over Rowville.

Suddenly, this week’s game becomes massive in their hopes to lock in a double chance. A loss and the Lions' position in the top three becomes a lot less certain with a tough run home.

They can steady this weekend with a win against Blackburn, but it stands out as a huge game at Zerbes.

Prediction: 3rd

4. Blackburn (8-6, 110.22%)

Round 15: Doncaster East (A)

Round 16: Noble Park (A)

Round 17: Berwick (H)

Round 18: South Belgrave (A)

Massive win for multiple reasons.

One, it proves they can still match it with the best in the division. Two, it goes a long way toward proving their finals credentials, and three, it opens up the double-chance possibility with a date with Doncaster East this weekend.

Win all four, including the game against the Lions? They’ll probably finish top three considering Doncaster East finish with the Roos and Hawks.

Prediction: 4th

5. Vermont (8-6, 101.31%)

Round 15: South Belgrave (H)

Round 16: South Croydon (H)

Round 17: East Ringwood (A)

Round 18: Berwick (H)

Continue to win with three more home games to follow. Two wins from their last four may get them in, three from four will almost certainly have them playing finals.

Four from four… Double Chance?

Prediction: 5th

6. Berwick (7-7, 109.84%)

Round 15: Noble Park (H)

Round 16: Rowville (H)

Round 17: Blackburn (A)

Round 18: Vermont (A)

They were gallant, but the loss really hurts their chances of playing in the finals this year, especially after both Blackburn and Vermont won.

It’s a difficult run home, but they do play both Vermont and Blackburn, which is who they want to be taking points from.

Likely need to win all four to guarantee a finals outing.

Prediction: 6th

7. Balwyn (6-1-7, 84.41%)

Round 15: South Croydon (A)

Round 16: Doncaster East (H)

Round 17: Noble Park (H)

Round 18: Rowville (A)

If you’re into mathematical possibilities, then yes, Balwyn are still technically in the running after the weekend.

Realistically, far too much out of their control would have to go right for the Tigers to have a chance at defending their title.

Prediction: 7th

8. South Croydon (4-1-9, 70.70%)

Round 15: Balwyn (H)

Round 16: Vermont (A)

Round 17: South Belgrave (A)

Round 18: Noble Park (H)

Great win for the Dogs, as proven, they can help shape the top five; they’ve given Blackburn in particular a little chance of a late charge for a double chance.

Prediction: 8th

9. South Belgrave (1-12, 69.80%)

Round 15: Vermont (A)

Round 16: East Ringwood (A)

Round 17: South Croydon (H)

Round 18: Blackburn (H)

Another competitive performance but still no points to show from it. The only thing keeping them safe for now is the five per cent gap between them and the Bulls.

They are still desperate for their second win and to create a buffer on Noble Park.

Prediction: 9th

10. Noble Park (1-13, 64.43%)

Round 15: Berwick (A)

Round 16: Blackburn (H)

Round 17: Balwyn (A)

Round 18: South Croydon (A)

Very similar to the Saints, competitive but at the end of the day, no four points.

The way things are going, the percentage gap might not be made up, so they need a win from their last four to keep their perfect history in Premier alive.

Prediction: 10th

Projected First Week of the Finals:

BYE: East Ringwood (1)

Qualifying Final: Rowville (2) v Doncaster East (3)

Elimination Final: Blackburn (4) v Vermont (5)

Division One

1. North Ringwood (13-2, 153.20%)

Round 16: Montrose (A)

Round 17: Mooroolbark (H)

Round 18: Boronia (A)

One win closer to the Minor Premiership, the Saints' biggest test in the run home is this weekend’s clash against the Dees at Montrose Rec Reserve.

With the Tigers hot on their tails, North Ringwood might still need to win all three of their final games to guarantee top spot.

Prediction: 1st

2. Mitcham (12-3, 157.66%)

Round 16: Beaconsfield (H)

Round 17: Montrose (H)

Round 18: Wantirna South (A)

A six-point gap on fourth means the Tigers are very likely to finish with the double chance from here.

Two tough games in Round 17 and 18, but only need to win one of the two to avoid an Elimination Final.

On the other hand, if they can win out from here, they’ll be eyeing off top spot, needing North Ringwood to drop a game on the run home.

Prediction: 2nd

3. Park Orchards (11-3, 133.64%)

Round 16: Bayswater (H)

Round 17: Boronia (A)

Round 18: Mooroolbark (H)

It was a massive test, a must-win game and the Sharks did exactly that to leapfrog the Devils into third spot on the ladder.

The Sharks don't meet another top five side for the remainder of the Home and Away season, so from here, they’re in a great spot to finish top three.

Unfinished business for Park Orchards after two grand final losses; is it third time the charm?

Prediction: 3rd

3. Wantirna South (10-1-4, 121.34%)

Round 16: Boronia (A)

Round 17: Bayswater (A)

Round 18: Mitcham (H)

A real hit to the Devils' double chance hopes after two close losses.

Must win the final three games of the season and have Mitcham or Park Orchards drop one of their other game if they want to avoid an Elimination Final with Montrose.

Prediction: 4th

5. Montrose (9-6, 132.69%)

Round 16: North Ringwood (H)

Round 17: Mitcham (A)

Round 18: Beaconsfield (A)

A few nervous moments against the Hawks on Saturday, but the Dees hold on and lock themselves in for a finals spot.

Two big tests against the top two sides in the next two weeks will give us an indication of where Montrose truly sits against the best.

Prediction: 5th

6. Boronia (7-8, 103.97%)

Round 16: Wantirna South (H)

Round 17: Park Orchards (H)

Round 18: North Ringwood (H)

It was a season on the line for the Hawks, and they fell just two points short.

It’s a tough final three games of the season, but they are at Tormore Reserve for all three.

Prediction: 6th

7. Mooroolbark (5-1-9, 89.37%)

Round 16: Norwood (H)

Round 17: North Ringwood (A)

Round 18: Park Orchards (A)

Competitive on the weekend against a very good Mitcham outfit.

Prediction: 7th

8. Beaconsfield (5-10, 103.78%)

Round 16: Mitcham (A)

Round 17: Norwood (A)

Round 18: Montrose (H)

Prediction: 8th

9. Norwood (2-10, 56.34%)

Round 16: Mooroolbark (A)

Round 17: Beaconsfield (H)

Round 18: Bayswater (A)

Last three games of the season against other sides around them, Norwood will be looking to win at least two to finish off the year on a good note.

Prediction: 9th

10. Bayswater (0-15, 32.29%)

Round 16: Park Orchards (A)

Round 17: Wantirna South (H)

Round 18: Norwood (H)

Prediction: 10th

Projected First Week of the Finals:

BYE: North Ringwood (1)

Qualifying Final: Mitcham (2) v Park Orchards (3)

Elimination Final: Wantirna South (4) v Montrose (5)

Division Two

1. Surrey Park (14-1, 155.56%)

Round 16: Mulgrave (H)

Round 17: Lilydale (A)

Round 18: Croydon (A)

Not much more to say for Surrey Park except that they keep handling their business. This week against Mulgrave is the type of game they want heading into the finals.

Prediction: 1st

2. Templestowe (13-2, 136.84%)

Round 16: East Burwood (H)

Round 17: Waverley Blues (A)

Round 18: Ringwood (H)

Look unlikely to drop another game from here on out, but still probably unlikely to take top spot away from the Panthers.

Prediction: 2nd

3. Mulgrave (10-5, 123.46%)

Round 16: Surrey Park (A)

Round 17: Croydon (H)

Round 18: East Burwood (A)

An eight-point game and they handled it perfectly, well positioned for a third place finish and another crack at Templestowe in the Qualifying Final.

Prediction: 3rd

4. Lilydale (8-7, 98.90%)

Round 16: Heathmont (A)

Round 17: Surrey Park (H)

Round 18: Scoresby (A)

Still expect the Falcons to play finals from here despite being tied on points with sixth-placed Waverley Blues.

Win the games they’re expected to win, they’ll return to the finals.

Prediction: 4th

5. Croydon (8-7, 96.44%)

Round 16: Scoresby (A)

Round 17: Mulgrave (A)

Round 18: Surrey Park (H)

All of a sudden, Croydon are in serious danger of missing the finals.

They are now in a position where they are likely going to need to knock off either Mulgrave or Surrey Park to secure a finals spot.

Percentage helps if the two sides both win the same amount of games in the last three weeks, but without a doubt, Croydon has the tougher run home.

Prediction: 6th

6. Waverley Blues (8-7, 75.18%)

Round 16: Ringwood (A)

Round 17: Templestowe (H)

Round 18: Heathmont (H)

Most crucial win of the year for the Waverley Blues; they tie on points with both Croydon and Lilydale.

They’ve got the better run home than Croydon, playing two sides below them on the ladder. Win both, and if Croydon can’t find a way over Mulgrave or Surrey Park, then the Waverley Blues are going to pull off what at times has looked like an unlikely finals spot.

Prediction: 5th

7. East Burwood (4-11, 98.98%)

Round 16: Templestowe (A)

Round 17: Heathmont (H)

Round 18: Mulgrave (H)

Cannot find a way to win on their home deck; a 4-11 record is fairly disappointing for a side that has shown glimpses throughout the year.

Prediction: 7th

8. Heathmont (4-11, 76.01%)

Round 16: Lilydale (H)

Round 17: East Burwood (A)

Round 18: Waverley Blues (A)

Suddenly things get interesting for the Jets who may need one more win to officially avoid relegation.

With Ringwood and Scoresby picking up wins and percentage in recent weeks, their one-game lead over the two doesn’t look as rock solid anymore.

Win one of their last three, and they’ll be safe. Lose all three? They put themselves at serious risk.

Prediction: 8th

9. Scoresby (3-12, 76.33%)

Round 16: Croydon (H)

Round 17: Ringwood (A)

Round 18: Lilydale (H)

They’ve lost their breathing room over Ringwood, but it’s a fairly decent run home for the Magpies who are still in the mix to consolidate their position in Division Two.

Must beat Ringwood in Round 17, but with Heathmont’s collapse, if they can pick up a win over Croydon or Lilydale, whom they defeated earlier in the season, they can avoid a 10th place finish.

Prediction: 9th

10. Ringwood (3-12, 75.89%)

Round 16: Waverley Blues (H)

Round 17: Scoresby (H)

Round 18: Templestowe (A)

One of the great Ringwood wins from the last few years, so important for their survival in Division Two.

There’s still a lot to play out, but from here, if they can beat Scoresby in Round 17, that on its own may be enough to survive.

Prediction: 10th

Projected First Week of the Finals:

BYE: Surrey Park (1)

Qualifying Final: Templestowe (2) v Mulgrave (3)

Elimination Final: (4) v Vermont (5)

Division Three

1. Donvale (12-2, 268.63%)

Round 17: Upper Ferntree Gully (A)

Round 18: Knox (H)

In what is a super tight race for top spot on the ladder, Donvale’s biggest advantage is that their percentage is not going to be chased down by either the Kings or Bears.

So win both games, and they’ll lock up yet another Minor Premiership.

Clearly a massive game this weekend against Upper Ferntree Gully at Kings Park; lose, and they’ll be playing in the Qualifying Final.

Prediction: 1st

2. Upper Ferntree Gully (12-2, 197.47%)

Round 17: Donvale (H)

Round 18: Ferntree Gully (A)

The Bears did the Kings a favour last week by knocking off Donvale; it means this weekend’s clash is an opportunity to play off for the Minor Premiership.

In saying that, the Bears are right behind them on percentage so there’s every possibility that they win this weekend and still remain in second!

Prediction: 3rd

3. The Basin (12-2, 194.84%)

Round 17: Coldstream (A)

Round 18: Whitehorse (A)

The Bears are on a roll, and their Minor Premiership hopes, interestingly enough, rely on Upper Ferntree Gully, a team above them on the ladder, winning this weekend.

If the Kings beat Donvale, and the Bears beat the Cougars by enough of a margin, they’ll take top spot entering the final round of the season.

There is a very real chance that The Basin and Upper FTG enter Round 18 needing to thump their opposition to gain more percentage than the other.

Prediction: 2nd

4. Knox (8-6, 114.26%)

Round 17: Whitehorse (H)

Round 18: Donvale (A)

At this stage, the Falcons are just making up the numbers in the top five.

They are well off the pace of the top three but certainly a long way ahead of the sides below them.

Prediction: 4th

5. Silvan (8-7, 101.57%)

Round 17: Bye

Round 18: Oakleigh District (A)

Needed that type of victory heading into their bye. Locked in for the Elimination Final against Knox.

Prediction: 5th

6. Coldstream (5-10, 74.026%)

Round 17: The Basin (H)

Round 18: Bye

Final game of the season this weekend against a red-hot Bears outfit.

Prediction: 6th

7. Whitehorse (4-10, 66.74%)

Round 17: Knox (A)

Round 18: The Basin (H)

Two difficult games to finish out the season for the Pioneers, potentially an opportunity for an upset this weekend against the Falcons.

Prediction: 7th

8. Ferntree Gully (2-10, 58.49%)

Round 17: Oakleigh District (A)

Round 18: Upper Ferntree Gully (H)

You would have to imagine Ferntree Gully snap their nine-game winning streak this weekend, but after Oakleigh District beat them at Wally Tew earlier in the year, nothing is certain.

Prediction: 8th

9. Oakleigh District (1-13, 33.30%)

Round 17: Ferntree Gully (H)

Round 18: Silvan (H)

The only way to survive the division is to pull off back-to-back wins in Round 17 and 18.

Prediction: 9th

Projected First Week of the Finals:

BYE: Donvale (1)

Qualifying Final: The Basin (2) v Upper Ferntree Gully (3)

Elimination Final: Knox (4) v Silvan (5)

Division Four

1. Warrandyte (11-1-1, 208.37%)

Round 16: Croydon North MLOC (H)

Round 17: Forest Hill (A)

Round 18: Kilsyth (H)

Another strong win for the Bloods, and they are now gearing up for a big finals series in which they will have the double chance.

Prediction: 1st

2. Bulleen Templestowe (10-4, 247.95%)

Round 16: Nunawading (A)

Round 17: Fairpark (H)

Round 18: BYE

The bye in the final round of the season hurts the Bullants as Chirnside Park have three games still to play, all against sides below them.

Round 17’s game against Fairpark may be an early look at what the first Semi Final match-up will be.

Prediction: 3rd

2. Fairpark (10-4, 200.12%)

Round 16: BYE

Round 17: Bulleen Templestowe (A)

Round 18: Doncaster (H)

Same position as the Bullants with the Lions bye coming this weekend before a big game at Ted Ajani Reserve.

Need to win both and have Chirnside Park drop one of their remaining three, most likely the Kilsyth game.

Prediction: 4th

4. Chirnside Park (10-3, 174.58%)

Round 16: Doncaster (H)

Round 17: Kilsyth (A)

Round 18: Forest Hill (H)

The equation is simple for the Panthers: win all three games, and they will finish in second and earn the double chance.

Doncaster remains a challenge, and Kilsyth are still fighting for their lives, so neither game is a lock.

Prediction: 2nd

5. Kilsyth (8-1-4, 169.31%)

Round 16: Forest Hill (A)

Round 17: Chirnside Park (H)

Round 18: Warrandyte (A)

Still mathematically alive, but they must win all three games to get there.

With Fairpark and Bulleen Templestowe are playing each other, and both also having a bye. It keeps the door open for the Cougars.

Two wins will not be enough, just have to keep winning and see how it all plays out.

Prediction: 5th

6. Doncaster (4-8, 94.85%)

Round 16: Chirnside Park (A)

Round 17: Nunawading (H)

Round 18: Fairpark (A)

In the final three games of the season, they’re every chance of winning multiple games on the run home and throwing a spanner in the works for Chirnside or Fairpark.

Prediction: 6th

7. Croydon North MLOC (4-9, 69.94%)

Round 16: Warrandyte (A)

Round 17: BYE

Round 18: Nunawading (H)

Arguably the KangaRams' best two performances of the year, despite not walking away with the victory in either game. Two games this week await the side, before a Round 17 Bye.

Prediction: 7th

8. Forest Hill (1-12, 24.94%)

Round 16: Kilsyth (H)

Round 17: Warrandyte (H)

Round 18: Chirnside Park (A)

Prediction: 8th

9. Nunawading (1-12, 20.41%)

Round 16: Bulleen Templestowe (H)

Round 17: Doncaster (A)

Round 18: Croydon North MLOC (A)

Prediction: 9th

Projected First Week of the Finals: