YvWater | The Run Home

Two very tight relegation races, three divisions with season-defining games this weekend set to shape who plays finals and who misses!

We take a look at each side's run home and project the potential first week of the finals match up's.

Premier Division

1.     East Ringwood (14-1, 175.20%)

Round 16: South Belgrave (H)

Round 17: Vermont (H)

Round 18: Doncaster East (A)

The Minor Premiership is theirs.

The Roos’ statement victory over Rowville at Seebeck Oval guarantees that East Ringwood will finish on top of the ladder for the second time in three seasons.

Prediction: 1^st

2.     Rowville (11-4, 142.97%)

Round 16: Berwick (A)

Round 17: Doncaster East (H)

Round 18: Balwyn (H)

Outplayed by a very good East Ringwood outfit on the weekend. The bigger concern is their current injury list, which grew over the weekend.

No easy game on the run home; expect the Hawks to bounce back and hopefully regain some troops in the next three weeks, leading up to the finals.

Remain the number one contender to East Ringwood.

Prediction: 2^nd

3.     Doncaster East (11-4, 111.35%)

Round 16: Balwyn (A)

Round 17: Rowville (A)

Round 18: East Ringwood (H)

One of the biggest wins the club has had in recent years as the Lions take another step closer to locking in a double chance. A loss would have opened the door for Blackburn; the win means the only side realistically a chance of stealing third spot from Doncaster East is Vermont.

It’s a tough run home, but it will prepare them well for the upcoming finals series.

Prediction: 3^rd

4.     Vermont (9-6, 107.76%)

Round 16: South Croydon (H)

Round 17: East Ringwood (A)

Round 18: Berwick (H)

A percentage boost and another four points is exactly what Vermont was after this weekend as they jump into fourth position.

Look fairly safe inside the top five but can’t afford to be off their guard this weekend against the Dogs. Double Chance is still a possibility after their percentage jump, but the Eagles would likely need to win all three of their final three games just to have a chance at that.

Prediction: 5^th

 5.   Berwick (8-7, 113.56%)

Round 16: Rowville (H)

Round 17: Blackburn (A)

Round 18: Vermont (A)

Good weekend for Berwick, who jumped back inside the top five after Blackburn’s nail-biting loss to Doncaster East.

Considering Blackburn has the easier run home, facing both South Belgrave and Noble Park, Berwick at a minimum need to get to 10 wins. Round 17 against Blackburn shapes up to be a mini Elimination Final; a loss at Morton Park would almost certainly seal their fate.

Rowville this weekend at home is a big opportunity with the Hawks missing some key personnel.

Prediction: 6th

6.      Blackburn (8-7, 109.16%)

Round 16: Noble Park (A)

Round 17: Berwick (H)

Round 18: South Belgrave (A)

That one hurts. Instead of closing the gap on third-place Doncaster East, a five-point loss now has the Lions outside of the top five.

 What works in their favour is their run home, two games against the bottom two sides of the division, and their Round 17 clash against Berwick is at home.

Win all three, and they play finals. Lose the Berwick game and the Burners lose control of their fate.

Prediction: 4th

7.        Balwyn (7-1-7, 87.62%)

Round 16: Doncaster East (H)

Round 17: Noble Park (H)

Round 18: Rowville (A)

They couldn’t. Could they?

The back-to-back reigning premiers kept their slim finals hopes alive with a come-from-behind win over South Croydon.

The Tigers, if they win all three games on the run home, would still need a lot to go their way. They would likely need Berwick to beat Blackburn, and then have either Rowville or Vermont defeat Berwick. In that scenario, 10 wins and a draw would see the Tigers slide into fifth.

We are probably reading too much into this; it is difficult to see Balwyn knocking off two top three sides on the run home.

Prediction: 7^th

8.     South Croydon (4-1-10, 70.88%)

Round 16: Vermont (A)

Round 17: South Belgrave (A)

Round 18: Noble Park (H)

The last two games against South Belgrave and Noble Park are very intriguing for the relegation race. They’ll be up against two sides desperate for a victory.

Prediction: 8^th

9.     South Belgrave (1-14, 67.56%)

Round 16: East Ringwood (A)

Round 17: South Croydon (H)

Round 18: Blackburn (H)

Percentage dropped but could have been worse if Vermont kicked straight.

Difficult to see them beating either East Ringwood or Blackburn, but Round 17’s game against South Croydon is the one that might just see the Saints survive another year in the Premier Division.

They do not want to be relying on Noble Park continuing to lose for their own survival in the division.

Prediction: 9^th

10.  Noble Park (1-14, 63.74%)

Round 16: Blackburn (H)

Round 17: Balwyn (A)

Round 18: South Croydon (A)

An East Ringwood thumping of South Belgrave would be handy for the Bulls, but the path to survival in Premier will likely come down to the Bulls finding win number two for the year.

As mentioned above, South Croydon are the most likely of the three games that the Bulls could win.

Prediction: 10^th

PROJECTED FINALS SERIES:

BYE: East Ringwood (1)

Qualifying Final: Rowville (2) v Doncaster East (3)

Elimination Final: Blackburn (4) v Vermont (5)

Division One

1.     Mitcham (13-3, 155.68%)

Round 17: Montrose (H)

Round 18: Wantirna South (A)

They can thank the Dees for doing them a favour and giving North Ringwood their third loss of the season, so Mitcham can jump into first.

Two wins against two finalists will lock up a Minor Premiership, which is something the Tigers didn't have when they won their last two Division One premierships in 2023 and 2024.

If they drop one of the two games, they’ll likely fall short of the Minor Premiership considering North Ringwood have a better run home.

Prediction: 1st  

2.     North Ringwood (13-3, 146.82%)

Round 17: Mooroolbark (H)

Round 18: Boronia (A)

Minor Premiership hopes took a blow, but they can still get there if either Montrose or Wantirna South knock off the Tigers, and the Saints take care of their business against the Mustangs and Hawks.

It’s such a tight division, so the Saints would love to take back top spot and give themselves a weekend off, but at this stage it’s not all in their control, assuming they can’t make up the percentage gap.

Prediction: 2nd

3.     Park Orchards (12-4, 146.32%)

Round 17: Boronia (A)

Round 18: Mooroolbark (H)

After Wantirna South lost on the weekend, the double chance is almost locked in for the Sharks. A win this weekend against Boronia would officially confirm it.

Prediction: 3rd

4.     Wantirna South (10-1-5, 119.62%)

Round 17: Bayswater (A)

Round 18: Mitcham (H)

The last three weeks have cost the Devils their double chance hopes. They’ll look to get back on the winners list in the next couple of weekends ahead of the finals.

Prediction: 4^th

5.     Montrose (10-6, 131.49%)

Round 17: Mitcham (A)

Round 18: Beaconsfield (A)

One of, if not the side’s best wins of season 2026.

The Dees, after a few rocky weeks, have found their feet and are gaining form as they move closer to their return to finals.

Prediction: 5^th

6.     Boronia (8-8, 104.25%)

Round 17: Park Orchards (H)

Round 18: North Ringwood (H)

Moved to an 8-8 record, but any mathematical hopes of keeping their finals hopes alive ended with Montrose’s win over North Ringwood.

Prediction: 6^th

 7.        Mooroolbark (6-1-9, 99.39%)

Round 17: North Ringwood (A)

Round 18: Park Orchards (A)

Prediction: 7^th

8.        Beaconsfield (5-11, 101.56%)

Round 17: Norwood (A)

Round 18: Montrose (H)

Prediction: 8^th

9.     Norwood (2-14, 53.49%)

Round 17: Beaconsfield (H)

Round 18: Bayswater (A)

Prediction: 9^th

10.  Bayswater (0-16, 31.15%)

Round 17: Wantirna South (H)

Round 18: Norwood (H)

Prediction: 10^th

PROJECTED FINALS SERIES:

BYE: Mitcham (1)

Qualifying Final: North Ringwood (2) v Park Orchards (3)

Elimination Final: Wantirna South (4) v Montrose (5)

Division Two

1.     Surrey Park (14-2, 148.96%)

Round 17: Lilydale (A)

Round 18: Croydon (A)

Not a costly loss considering Templestowe also went down on the weekend, keeping the game and percentage buffer between the sides.

Can afford another loss but I don't expect that to happen in the final two weeks of the year.

Prediction: 1^st

2.     Templestowe (13-3, 133.89%)

Round 17: Waverley Blues (A)

Round 18: Ringwood (H)

A win would have kept back-to-back Minor Premiership hopes alive. At this stage, they’re looking at a date with Mulgrave at Walker Park, with the Lions in great form.

Prediction: 2nd

3.     Mulgrave (11-5, 123.46%)

Round 17: Croydon (H)

Round 18: East Burwood (A)

A massive result that proves Mulgrave’s best is good enough to beat anyone on their day. The Lions will seek to carry that form into the final two games of the season.

Prediction: 3rd

4.     Waverley Blues (9-7, 84.90%)

Round 17: Templestowe (H)

Round 18: Heathmont (H)

Most crucial win of the year for the Waverley Blues; they tie on points with both Croydon and Lilydale.

After looking unlikely to even play finals a few weeks back, it’s now difficult to see the Waverley Blues missing after another blunder from both Lilydale and Croydon.

Percentage still isn’t their friend, but considering the run home of Croydon, they could still make it even without winning again.

They’ll win at least one of their last two from here to confirm a return to finals.

Prediction: 4^th

5.     Lilydale (8-8, 98.29%)

Round 17: Surrey Park (H)

Round 18: Scoresby (A)

Not a game we thought they would drop, but they were very lucky that Scoresby found a way to get over Croydon, keeping Lilydale in the top five.

They now cop the Panthers coming off a loss, before a tricky trip to Scoresby Rec Reserve, who at this very moment are fighting a relegation race with Ringwood.

There is a scenario where they lose both and still make it, considering Croydon face Mulgrave and Surrey Park.

It looks like it may all come down to the wire in Round 18. The worst thing that could happen this weekend for the Falcons is a loss and a hit to percentage while Croydon win.

Prediction: 5th

6.     Croydon (8-8, 96.21%)

Round 17: Mulgrave (A)

Round 18: Surrey Park (H)

Another tough loss, and it’s now a daunting final fortnight of the season for the Blues who face Mulgrave and Surrey Park, the two in-form teams of the comp.

They have to manage to find a way back on the winners' list, need at least one win from their last two games, and even that may not be enough.

At the very least, cannot afford a big percentage hit this weekend considering they aren't far off Lilydale. The Blues defeated the Lions earlier in the year by 44 points in one of their best wins of the season; can they repeat this?

Prediction: 6th

7.        East Burwood (5-11, 99.21%)

Round 17: Heathmont (H)

Round 18: Mulgrave (H)

Finally, they win a close one!

They have a very good opportunity this weekend to snap their winless streak at East Burwood Reserve as they face Heathmont.

Prediction: 7^th

8.        Heathmont (5-11, 77.49%)

Round 17: East Burwood (A)

Round 18: Waverley Blues (A)

There’s certainly some relief out of the Heathmont camp after their win on the weekend. Safe from relegation talks.

Prediction: 8^th

9.  Scoresby (4-12, 77.75%)

Round 17: Ringwood (A)

Round 18: Lilydale (H)

Absolutely massive result for the Magpies, giving them a game lead on this week’s opponent, 10th place Ringwood.

It does make this weekend very clear: a win and Scoresby will survive relegation and stay in the division for another year. If they lose, they’ll probably remain in ninth if it’s a close loss and Ringwood don’t make up the two per cent.

However, in that situation, it makes Round 18 very interesting, and we may need to get the calculators and live ladders out to work out what’s going to happen.

Prediction: 9th

10.     Ringwood (3-12, 75.50%)

Round 17: Scoresby (H)

Round 18: Templestowe (A)

Their own loss didn't hurt as much as Scoresby’s narrow come-from-behind win did.

Division Two is on the line this weekend; to survive, Ringwood MUST defeat Scoresby. As mentioned above, percentage might still see them remain in tenth going into the final round of the season.

Prediction: 10^th

PROJECTED FINALS SERIES:

BYE: Surrey Park (1)

Qualifying Final: Templestowe (2) v Mulgrave (3)

Elimination Final: Waverley Blues (4) v Lilydale (5)

Division Three

1.     Donvale (13-2, 263.97%)

Round 18: Knox (H)

One win away from officially locking up a fourth consecutive Minor Premiership. Over 70 per cent clear of The Basin, so a win this weekend will be enough to put the Magpies in the box seat once again.

Prediction: 1^st

 2.     The Basin (13-2, 188.55%)

Round 18: Whitehorse (A)

With the Magpies' win over Upper Ferntree Gully, top spot is less likely for the Bears from here. As mentioned above, with Donvale’s percentage, the only way The Basin can pinch the Minor Premiership is if the Falcons knock off the Magpies this weekend.

They are coming off win number 10 in a row and won’t mind continuing their form in a Qualifying Final.

Prediction: 2^nd

3.     Upper Ferntree Gully (12-3, 185.43%)

Round 18: Ferntree Gully (A)

Qualifying Final awaits Upper Ferntree Gully after their loss to Donvale on Saturday. Their opposition isn't locked in yet, but if results go the way they're expected to, Upper Gully will meet The Basin in the first week of the finals.

Interestingly, a trip to Wally Tew Reserve this weekend will give the Kings an early look at where they’ll be playing for the next few weeks across the finals series.

Prediction: 3^rd

4.     Knox (9-6, 120.87%)

Round 18: Donvale (A)

Their position on the ladder won't change going into the final round of the season; they’ll be facing the Cats next weekend in an Elimination Final.

But they do have an opportunity to face the best side in it with a trip to Donvale Reserve. If they cause the upset, they’ll cause Donvale to lose top spot, but more importantly for the Falcons, prove that they can match it with the top three sides at their best.

Prediction: 4th

5.     Silvan (8-7, 101.57%)

Round 18: Oakleigh District (A)

Locked in for the Elimination Final against Knox next Sunday at Wally Tew Reserve.

Prediction: 5^th

6.        Coldstream (5-11, 74.70%)

Round 18: Bye

Prediction: 6th

7.        Whitehorse (4-11, 64.34%)

Round 18: The Basin (H)

The final game with premiership coach Andrew Haining at the helm.

Prediction: 7^th  

8.        Ferntree Gully (3-12, 63.64%)

Round 18: Upper Ferntree Gully (H)

The Eagles snapped their losing streak and guaranteed that they will remain in Division Three for another season.

Prediction: 8^th

9.        Oakleigh District (1-14, 33.67%)

Round 18: Silvan (H)

Locked in for relegation after last weekend’s loss to Ferntree Gully.

Prediction: 9th

PROJECTED FINALS SERIES:

BYE: Donvale (1)

Qualifying Final: The Basin (2) v Upper Ferntree Gully (3)

Elimination Final: Knox (4) v Silvan (5)

Division Four

1.     Warrandyte (12-1-1, 210.98%)

Round 17: Forest Hill (A)

Round 18: Kilsyth (H)

The Bloods can officially lock in the Minor Premiership this weekend with a win over Forest Hill.

Division Four is a top four finals format once again, so they will be playing on the first weekend of the finals, with their opposition not locked in.

Prediction: 1st  

2.     Bulleen Templestowe (11-4, 268.79%)

Round 17: Fairpark (H)

Round 18: BYE

For the double chance, what works well for the Bullants is their percentage and the form they carry into this weekend’s home clash against the Lions.

What doesn't work for the Bullants is the fact they have a Bye in Round 18. Because of this, they still haven’t officially qualified for finals.

A win this weekend or a Kilsyth loss will officially lock in Bulleen Templestowe’s first-ever senior finals appearance.

Prediction: 3rd

3. Chirnside Park (10-3, 174.34%)

Round 17: Kilsyth (A)

Round 18: Forest Hill (H)

This weekend will decide if the Panthers play off in the Qualifying or Elimination Final.

Two wins will lock in second spot. One win would likely see them finish in third or fourth, unless both the Bullants and Fairpark lose one game each.

A lot up for grabs this weekend.

Prediction: 2nd

4. Fairpark (10-4, 200.12%)

Round 17: Bulleen Templestowe (A)

Round 18: Doncaster (H)

We didn't expect the Lions to be in a position going into the final two rounds of the season, still needing to lock in a finals place.

Need at least one win in their final two games of the season, will need to win twice if Kilsyth win-out.

Prediction: 4th  

 5. Kilsyth (9-1-4, 184.54%)

Round 17: Chirnside Park (H)

Round 18: Warrandyte (A)

Two mini Elimination Finals for the Cougars.

With Fairpark and Bulleen Templestowe playing each other, if Kilsyth can win both of their last two games, they’re in.

The issue is that they do play two very good sides in Chirnside Park and Warrandyte.

The Cougars would be mathematically eliminated from contention this Saturday if they lose to the Panthers and Fairpark defeats Bulleen Templestowe.

Prediction: 5th

6. Doncaster (4-9, 91.67%)

Round 17: Nunawading (H)

Round 18: Fairpark (A)

Have the capability to pull off an upset over Fairpark in Round 18, which could have consequences for the Lions' finals chances.

Prediction: 6th

7. Croydon North MLOC (4-11, 67.78%)

Round 17: BYE

Round 18: Nunawading (H)

Prediction: 7th

 8. Forest Hill (1-13, 24.08%)

Round 17: Warrandyte (H)

Round 18: Chirnside Park (A)

Prediction: 8th

9. Nunawading (1-13, 19.63%)

Round 17: Doncaster (A)

Round 18: Croydon North MLOC (A)

Prediction: 9th

PROJECTED FINALS SERIES:

Semi Final 2: Warrandyte (1) v Chirnside Park (2)

Semi Final 1: Bulleen Templestowe (3) v Fairpark (4)