Statistical Dominance: Identifying the EFNL Premier Division's Most Successful Club

By Wayne Brasher

Introduction

In the thrilling world of the Eastern Football Netball League (EFNL) Premier Division, competition is fierce, and the quest for supremacy demands excellence both on and off the field. Recently, our resident analyst, "The Oracle," posed a compelling query: Which club has demonstrated statistical superiority since the league's Premier Division was established? As a passionate advocate for statistical analysis, I embraced this challenge wholeheartedly, determined to uncover the answer through meticulous examination of the numbers.

Defining the Criteria

To ensure a fair and meaningful comparison, I set out clear qualifying criteria. The clubs selected for this analysis must meet the following requirements:

·       Active participation in the 2025 Premier Division

·       Continuous involvement in the league from its inaugural 2019 Premier Division season onwards.

Based on these criteria, six clubs emerged as contenders for the title of statistical dominance:

·       Balwyn

·       Blackburn

·       Noble Park

·       Rowville

·       South Croydon

·       Vermont

Methodology

To delve into the numbers, I employed a straightforward yet comprehensive methodology. By analysing win-loss records across home fixtures, away matches, and finals appearances, I sought to determine which organization has truly dominated the EFNL Premier Division since its inception. This statistical study spans the division's inaugural season in 2019 through the conclusion of the 2024 season.

Considering Disruptions

It is important to acknowledge significant disruptions caused by COVID-19 during this period:

·       The 2020 season was neither started nor completed.

·       The 2021 season was truncated to approximately 10 games.

Therefore, the analysis encompasses performance across four complete seasons (2019, 2022, 2023, and 2024) as well as one partial season (2021).

Statistical Insights into Club Performances

	Best Offensive Club
Team	Points (For)	Rank(F)
Balwyn	7835	1
Rowville	7365	2
Vermont	7327	3
South Croydon	7181	4
Blackburn	6936	5
Noble Park	6556	6

Looking at offensive firepower across these six Premier Division clubs, Balwyn clearly emerges as the most potent attacking side with an impressive 7,835 points scored, establishing them as the division's offensive powerhouse. Rowville (7,365) and Vermont (7,327) follow in a tight battle for second, separated by just 38 points. South Croydon sits comfortably in fourth with 7,181 points, while a significant gap exists to fifth-placed Blackburn (6,936). Noble Park rounds out the group with 6,556 points, trailing the top-scoring Balwyn by nearly 1,300 points. This data highlights Balwyn's remarkable offensive dominance throughout the measured seasons.

	Best Defensive Club
Team	Points (Against)	Rank(A)
Vermont	5492	1
Noble Park	5700	2
Balwyn	5800	3
Rowville	5902	4
Blackburn	6155	5
South Croydon	6266	6

Defensively, Vermont stands as the division's most formidable unit, conceding just 5,492 points to claim the top defensive ranking. Noble Park follows closely in second place with 5,700 points against, while Balwyn rounds out the top three defensive sides with 5,800 points conceded. Rowville occupies fourth position with 5,902 points against, followed by Blackburn in fifth (6,155). South Croydon has struggled most defensively, ranking last after conceding 6,266 points—nearly 800 more than top-ranked Vermont. This defensive data demonstrates Vermont's excellence in limiting opposition scoring while highlighting significant vulnerabilities in South Croydon's defensive structure.

	Win/Loss Record
Team	M	W	L	D	W%	Rank	Premierships
Balwyn	90	65	25	0	72.22%	1	1
Vermont	86	60	26	0	69.77%	2	1
Rowville	88	60	28	0	68.18%	3	1
South Croydon	87	50	39	0	57.30%	4
Blackburn	89	49	37	1	56.32%	5
Noble Park	85	45	40	0	52.94%	6	1

The win/loss record clearly establishes Balwyn as the division's dominant force, boasting an impressive 72.22%-win rate with 65 victories from 90 matches. Vermont and Rowville occupy the second and third positions with nearly identical win totals (60 each) but slightly different win percentages (69.77% and 68.18% respectively). A considerable performance gap exists between the top three clubs and the rest of the competition, with South Croydon (57.30%) and Blackburn (56.32%) delivering middling results, while Noble Park rounds out the group with a 52.94%-win rate. Perhaps most intriguing is the premiership distribution—despite significant differences in regular-season success, four clubs (Balwyn, Vermont, Rowville, and Noble Park) have each secured one premiership, demonstrating that finals success doesn't always correlate with overall performance.

Wins (Margin Range)
Team	Total	60+	30+	18+	12+	6+	<=6
Balwyn	65	14	22	17	2	4	6
Vermont	60	13	22	11	5	5	4
Rowville	60	11	21	10	4	5	9
South Croydon	50	12	16	10	7	4	1
Blackburn	49	8	14	11	7	4	5
Noble Park	45	10	19	8	0	5	3

Key Insights:

Balwyn clearly dominates in high-margin victories with 53 out of their 65 total wins (82%) coming by 18+ points. They're particularly strong in the 30+ range with 22 wins.

Vermont follows with 46 of 60 wins (77%) in these categories, also showing strength in the 30+ range with 22 wins.

Rowville has 42 of 60 wins (70%) in these ranges, with their strength also in the 30+ category (21 wins).

The bottom three clubs (South Croydon, Noble Park, and Blackburn) have notably fewer high-margin victories, suggesting they tend to win by smaller margins and may play in closer, more competitive matches.

		Venue (Home) Win/Loss Ratio And Average Win/Loss Margins)
Club	M	W	L	D	W%	AWM	ALM	Rank
Vermont	41	30	11	0	73.17%	42	21	1
Balwyn	40	28	12	0	70.00%	45	44	2
Rowville	41	27	14	0	65.85%	43	35	3
South Croydon	41	24	17	0	58.54%	52	27	4
Blackburn	40	22	17	1	55.00%	39	28	5
Noble Park	41	20	21	0	48.78%	44	27	6

Vermont dominates at home with 30 wins, the highest win count and win percentage. The top two teams (Vermont and Balwyn) both win over 70% of their home games. There's a significant 24.4 percentage point gap between the best (Vermont) and worst (Noble Park) home performers. Four of the six clubs have winning home records (>50%). Only Noble Park struggles at home, winning less than half their matches.

		Venue (Away) Win/Loss Ratio And Average Win/Loss Margins)
Club	M	W	L	D	W%	AWM	ALM	Rank
Balwyn	41	32	9	0	78.05%	44	26	1
Rowville	39	29	10	0	74.36%	39	32	2
Vermont	39	27	12	0	69.23%	44	38	3
Blackburn	41	25	16	0	60.98%	36	25	4
Noble Park	41	23	18	0	56.10%	41	27	5
South Croydon	41	22	19	0	53.66%	32	28	6

This away performance table presents a fascinating snapshot of how six clubs fare when playing outside their home venues. The data reveals that Balwyn has established themselves as the premier road team, securing an outstanding 32 victories from 41 away matches. Their 78% win rate demonstrates exceptional consistency and mental fortitude when facing hostile crowds and unfamiliar conditions.

Following closely behind, Rowville has compiled an impressive away record of their own, winning 29 of their 39 matches for a 74.4% success rate. Vermont rounds out the top three with 27 wins from 39 matches, maintaining a strong 69.2% win percentage that would be the envy of many clubs. These three teams have clearly mastered the art of winning on the road, with all three maintaining win rates approaching or exceeding 70%.

The remaining three clubs, while not matching the elite away performances of the top tier, still demonstrate respectable road records.

	Finals Performances
Team	M	W	L	W%	Premierships
South Croydon	7	5	2	71.43%	0
Noble Park	3	2	1	66.67%	1
Balwyn	9	5	4	55.56%	1
Rowville	8	4	4	50.00%	1
Vermont	6	3	3	50.00%	1
Blackburn	6	2	4	33.33%	0

The finals performance data reveals a fascinating paradox in postseason success. South Croydon, despite boasting the highest finals win percentage at 71.43% with 5 victories from 7 appearances, has failed to capture a single premiership. This stark contrast between their excellent finals record and lack of ultimate success suggests they may have consistently fallen short in preliminary finals or struggled in the grand final itself.

Meanwhile, four clubs have each claimed one premiership despite varying levels of finals success. Noble Park stands out as remarkably efficient, converting their limited opportunities into championship glory - they've appeared in just 3 finals but managed to secure a premiership while maintaining a 66.67% win rate. This suggests exceptional performance when it matters most.

Balwyn has been the most frequent finals participant with 9 appearances, translating their regular finals presence into one premiership despite a middling 55.56% win rate. Rowville follows a similar pattern with 8 finals appearances yielding a perfectly balanced 4-4 record and one championship. Vermont, with 6 finals appearances and a 50% success rate, has also managed to capture that elusive premiership.

Blackburn's finals record paints a concerning picture - not only do they have the lowest win percentage at 33.33% with just 2 wins from 6 attempts, but they've also failed to secure a premiership. Their struggles in high-pressure matches appear to be a significant obstacle to championship success.

The data illuminates an important truth about finals football: consistency in winning finals matches doesn't always correlate with premiership success. South Croydon's empty trophy cabinet despite their impressive win rate serves as a reminder that timing and clutch performance in the biggest moments often matter more than overall finals statistics.

		All Teams (Head To Head)
Team	M	W	L	D
Balwyn	48	30	18	0
Rowville	48	29	19	0
Vermont	46	27	19	0
Blackburn	47	19	28	1
South Croydon	48	19	29	0
Noble Park	45	17	28	0

The head-to-head records among these six teams reveal a clear hierarchy in their mutual contests. Balwyn sits atop the standings with an impressive 30 wins from 48 matches, giving them a 62.5% success rate against this group of opponents. Their dominance in direct matchups aligns with their strong overall performance metrics seen in other areas.

Rowville follows closely behind with 29 wins from 48 matches, maintaining a 60.4% win rate that demonstrates their ability to consistently beat their rivals. Vermont, despite playing slightly fewer matches at 46, has secured 27 victories for a solid 58.7% success rate, placing them firmly in the upper tier of this competitive group.

A significant gap exists between the top three and bottom three teams. Blackburn finds themselves on the wrong side of the ledger with only 19 wins from 47 matches, and they hold the distinction of being the only team to record a draw in these head-to-head contests. Their 40.4% win rate suggests they've struggled against this particular group of opponents.

South Croydon's head-to-head record presents an intriguing contrast to their excellent finals performance. With just 19 wins from 48 matches (39.6%), they've found it difficult to beat these specific rivals during the regular season, yet somehow elevate their game when it matters most in finals. Noble Park rounds out the group with the poorest head-to-head record, managing only 17 wins from 45 matches for a 37.8% success rate.

The data paints a picture of three dominant teams who win roughly 60% of their matches against this group, while the bottom three struggle to reach even a 41% win rate, highlighting a significant competitive divide within this collection of clubs.

 

Conclusion

Balwyn’s statistical supremacy is evident across offensive output, win consistency, margin dominance, and head-to-head success, making them the clear leader. While Vermont and Rowville excel in specific areas (defense and finals efficiency, respectively), Balwyn’s balanced excellence across all metrics solidifies their status as the statistically best team.

Final Ranking:

1. Balwyn

2. Vermont (defensive strength, 2nd-best win rate)

3. Rowville (consistent but slightly behind Balwyn/Vermont in key stats)

4. South Croydon (finals prowess but weaker regular season)

5. Blackburn (middling performance)

6. Noble Park (efficient finals but weakest overall record).

   
   

Balwyn’s data-driven dominance makes them the statistically undeniable top team.

The investigation into statistical dominance among EFNL Premier Division clubs is a testament to the league's competitive spirit and the resilience of its teams.

By scrutinizing performance data, this analysis sheds light on the clubs that have excelled amid challenges and uncertainties, offering fascinating insights into the dynamics of this prestigious competition.