Yarra Valley Water | The Run Home
- rlong69
- Jul 15
- 15 min read
Updated: Jul 29
By Ryan Long.
Four weeks to play for the Division Three Senior Men's competition and just five weeks for Divisions One, Two and Four.
We take a look at each side's run home and predict how each division's first week of the finals may look!
DIVISION ONE
1. South Belgrave (11-1, 211.68%, 44 Points)
Round 14: BYE
Round 15: Boronia (A)
Round 16: Bayswater (H)
Round 17: Mooroolbark (A)
Round 18: Montrose (H)
Better to drop a game now than in two months’ time.
With everyone available, this South Belgrave side appears a much stronger side to their 2023 team that went undefeated for the year until Grand Final Day at Tormore Reserve against the Tigers.
Without a doubt, they still remain the benchmark of Division One.
Prediction: 1st
2. Park Orchards (10-2, 127.94%, 40 Points)
Round 14: Norwood (A)
Round 15: North Ringwood (H)
Round 16: Boronia (H)
Round 17: BYE
Round 18: Beaconsfield (A)
Technically still in the race for top spot with South Belgrave’s loss.
However, well behind on percentage which realistically means it’s an eight-point gap between Park Orchards and a second consecutive Minor Premiership. Add on to that, they’ve got a much tougher run home than the Saints.
They’ll likely face Boronia, Beaconsfield or even North Ringwood in the first week of the finals, all three sides they meet on the run home.
Prediction: 2nd
3. Boronia (7-4, 119.04%, 28 Points)
Round 14: North Ringwood (A)
Round 15: South Belgrave (H)
Round 16: Park Orchards (A)
Round 17: Norwood (A)
Round 18: Mooroolbark (H)
It was a gutsy win that we might look at come Round 18 as what got the Hawks over the line for a double chance.
This weekend’s clash against North Ringwood is viewed as a much tougher assignment than their Round Five clash at Miller Park. This week's meeting is followed by back-to-back weeks against the top two.
Three wins from their last five with a healthy percentage should see Boronia finish third. Four and you can almost lock in that Qualifying Final date with the Sharks. Anything less and it'll open up the door for the two sides below them.
Huge opportunity this weekend to create a buffer in third with a win over North Ringwood, and a Beaconsfield loss to Montrose.
Prediction: 3rd
4. North Ringwood (7-5, 109.43%, 28 Points)
Round 14: Boronia (H)
Round 15: Park Orchards (A)
Round 16: BYE
Round 17: Montrose (H)
Round 18: Bayswater (A)
The biggest scalp of the season, North Ringwood’s win over South Belgrave may be the one that gets the side back into the finals this year.
The Saints have the trickiest run home of any side from 3rd to 6th, with two big games against Boronia and Park Orchards before the bye.
Nine wins and a strong percentage is the bar.
Defeat Boronia this weekend and they’ll move into third, but factoring in the bye and the following weekend’s clash with the Sharks, the path to a top-three finish is a lot more complicated.
They enter Saturday’s clash against the Hawks with momentum, searching for a sixth win in seven weeks.
Prediction: 5th
5. Beaconsfield (6-5, 116.69%, 24 Points)
Round 14: Montrose (A)
Round 15: Mooroolbark (H)
Round 16: Norwood (H)
Round 17: Bayswater (A)
Round 18: Park Orchards (H)
A typical eight-point game that had a major impact on Beaconsfield’s season.
Had they beaten Boronia, a top-three spot would have been theirs to lose. Instead, the three-point loss sees the Eagles dropping to fifth, just a game ahead of Montrose who they meet this weekend.
Despite the injury toll and minor form slump, I’m backing the Eagles to finish the season strongly with their run home. Only team in the top-six that will play all of the bottom three sides in the run home, so avoid a slip-up and they’ll finish with at least nine wins which should be enough to make it.
Dependent on Boronia and North Ringwood’s results, the top three is still a very realistic chance.
A loss to Montrose wouldn’t be disastrous but it will certainly put some pressure on the side.
Prediction: 4th
6. Montrose (5-6, 102.05%, 20 Points)
Round 14: Beaconsfield (H)
Round 15: Norwood (A)
Round 16: Mooroolbark (H)
Round 17: North Ringwood (A)
Round 18: South Belgrave (A)
Tough weekend to have a bye after a great performance against Boronia, they sat back and watched North Ringwood shoot up to fourth with their upset win over North Ringwood.
Despite Beaconsfield now looking most vulnerable within the top five, it’s still likely that if the Dees make it, they’d be replacing the Saints, due to the Eagles' easier run home.
Two mammoth games to take a look at, Beaconsfield this weekend and Round 17 at Quambee Reserve against the Saints. Likely need at least four wins to make it, if they can’t beat a wounded Eagles side this weekend, then they’ll be relying on four weeks of everything going their way.
Prediction: 6th
7. Mooroolbark (3-8, 76.67%, 12 Points)
Round 14: Bayswater (H)
Round 15: Beaconsfield (A)
Round 16: Montrose (A)
Round 17: South Belgrave (H)
Round 18: Boronia (A)
Hasn’t been their year but can the Mustangs shape the finals with an upset or two?
They’ll have an opportunity to get back on the winners list this weekend as they face Bayswater at home.
Prediction: 7th
8. Bayswater (3-9, 68.38%, 12 Points)
Round 14: Mooroolbark (A)
Round 15: BYE
Round 16: South Belgrave (A)
Round 17: Beaconsfield (H)
Round 18: North Ringwood (H)
A positive result on the weekend, third win of the 2025 season for Bayswater.
They’ll look at this weekend’s clash at Heights Reserve as a chance at a fourth win against a struggling Mustangs outfit.
Prediction: 8th
9. Norwood (0-12, 41.27%, 0 Points)
Round 14: Park Orchards (H)
Round 15: Montrose (H)
Round 16: Beaconsfield (A)
Round 17: Boronia (H)
Round 18: BYE
Another slow start in the first quarter against Bayswater put the game away before it started.
The last four games are against top five sides or teams still in the finals conversation.
Prediction: 9th
Division One Projected First week of Finals:
BYE - South Belgrave
Qualifying Final: Park Orchards v Boronia
Elimination Final: Beaconsfield v North Ringwood
DIVISION TWO
1. Templestowe (11-2, 154.08%, 44 Points)
Round 14: Croydon (A)
Round 15: Surrey Park (H)
Round 16: Ringwood (A)
Round 17: East Burwood (A)
Round 18: Mulgrave (H)
Building nicely towards the 2025 finals series.
Having a percentage of over 150% makes their one-game buffer more of a two-game gap so a loss in their next couple of games against finals contenders isn’t a massive concern.
They’ll relish the chance to place some of the other contenders on the run home to sharpen up for a big finals series.
Prediction: 1st
2. Wantirna South (10-3, 125.41%, 40 Points)
Round 14: Lilydale (A)
Round 15: Heathmont (H)
Round 16: Waverley Blues (A)
Round 17: Mulgrave (A)
Round 18: Croydon (H)
The Devils remain unbeaten at Walker Reserve, which has now become a fortress.
To finish on top, they need the Dockers to slip up on two of their last five games while continuing to win themselves.
Their last four games are all against clubs that are fighting for a position in the five.
Prediction: 2nd
3. Surrey Park (9-4, 112.24%, 36 Points)
Round 14: Heathmont (A)
Round 15: Templestowe (A)
Round 16: Lilydale (H)
Round 17: Waverley Blues (H)
Round 18: East Burwood (A)
The Panthers had a chance to virtually seal their position in the top three in an enormous eight-point game against the Lions.
The loss has opened the door for Mulgrave but even then, the Panthers still have a more favourable run home. Their toughest tests come in the next two weeks with away trips to H.E Parker Reserve and Templestowe Reserve.
Even winning just one of their next two should place Surrey Park in a strong position heading into their final three weeks of the season. The double chance is still theirs to lose.
Prediction: 3rd
4. Mulgrave (8-5, 110.38%, 32 Points)
Round 14: Waverley Blues (A)
Round 15: Croydon (H)
Round 16: Heathmont (A)
Round 17: Wantirna South (H)
Round 18: Templestowe (A)
Season-defining win for Mulgrave, seven-goal winners against Surrey Park, on the Panthers' home turf.
Firstly, the win gives them a two-game gap on the next three sides and secondly, it leaves the door ajar for the double chance.
One of the toughest run homes in Division Two, with no easy games in their last five.
They finish with the top two in their final two games of the season so if they’re to finish third, they likely can’t afford a slip-up in their next three weeks.
Probably still need four wins from their last five games for a third-place finish.
Prediction: 4th
5. Heathmont (6-7, 110.38%, 24 Points)
Round 14: Surrey Park (H)
Round 15: Wantirna South (A)
Round 16: Mulgrave (H)
Round 17: Lilydale (A)
Round 18: Waverley Blues (A)
The Jets' 67-point win over the Rams and Croydon’s big loss to the Waverley Blues has seen a massive swing in ladder positions.
Heathmont can forget about anything above them; they’re too far away from a double chance. All that matters for the Jets are wins, and Croydon and Waverley Blues losses. They appear the more likely side of the three to cause upsets over the top four teams.
Starting the year 1-5, since then, the Jets are 5-2 and not a side you want to meet in the first week of the finals.
Prediction: 5th
6. Croydon (6-7, 95.71%, 24 Points)
Round 14: Templestowe (H)
Round 15: Mulgrave (A)
Round 16: East Burwood (A)
Round 17: Ringwood (H)
Round 18: Wantirna South (A)
Significant loss on the weekend, considering a win would have almost ruled out the Waverley Blues and their finals chances.
It’s now too tight between the three teams fighting for the fifth spot to try and boldly predict how the final ladder may stand.
Templestowe at home this weekend is a tough ask but any major upset will shake up the ladder and go a long way for their finals aspirations.
Prediction: 6th
7. Waverley Blues (6-7, 90.83%, 24 Points)
Round 14: Mulgrave (H)
Round 15: Ringwood (A)
Round 16: Wantirna South (H)
Round 17: Surrey Park (A)
Round 18: Heathmont (H)
A season-defining win for the Waverley Blues, another definition of an eight-point win.
There’s a pulse but can they find that consistency in the final stretch of the season that they’ve been chasing all year?
Percentage is a worry, three wins probably won’t do it for the Waverley Blues. If they can get to the final round of the season equal on points with the Jets, we’ll be in for a grandstand finish at Central Reserve.
Prediction: 7th
8. Ringwood (4-9, 70.67%, 16 Points)
Round 14: East Burwood (A)
Round 15: Waverley Blues (H)
Round 16: Templestowe (H)
Round 17: Croydon (A)
Round 18: Lilydale (H)
The Redbacks remain a dangerous side with potential to cause couple of boilovers on the run home and shape how this final five will finish.
Prediction: 9th
9. East Burwood (3-10, 87.64%, 12 Points)
Round 14: Ringwood (H)
Round 15: Lilydale (H)
Round 16: Croydon (H)
Round 17: Templestowe (H)
Round 18: Surrey Park (H)
Five home games to finish off the Home and Away season.
Similar to Ringwood, have the potential to cause an upset, as well as two very winnable games in the upcoming fortnight.
Prediction: 8th
10. Lilydale (2-11, 63.03%, 8 Points)
Round 14: Wantirna South (H)
Round 15: East Burwood (A)
Round 16: Surrey Park (A)
Round 17: Heathmont (H)
Round 18: Ringwood (A)
To avoid relegation, the Falcons will likely need three wins from their last five matches, two wins minimum.
Whether they stay or move down a division, the focus will be on the bigger picture and the long-term success of the club.
Prediction: 10th
Division Two Projected First week of Finals:
BYE - Templestowe
Qualifying Final: Wantirna South v Surrey Park
Elimination Final: Mulgrave v Heathmont
DIVISION THREE
1. Donvale (12-2, 208.44%, 48 Points)
Round 15: Silvan (H)
Round 16: Upper Ferntree Gully (A)
Round 17: Scoresby (A)
Round 18: Knox (H)
The Magpies did what they had to, another four points secured.
Due to some crucial outs, they’re certainly vulnerable so the final month of the season will test their depth.
The Round 17 clash against Scoresby may decide whether Donvale finish the season with a third consecutive Minor Premiership.
Prediction: 2nd
2. Scoresby (12-2, 187.06%, 48 Points)
Round 15: Coldstream (A)
Round 16: Silvan (A)
Round 17: Donvale (H)
Round 18: Upper Ferntree Gully (A)
The in-form team and most consistent side of the division, Scoresby are hunting down Donvale for the top spot on the Division Three ladder.
If they win their next two, their Round 17 clash against Donvale, which also aligns with the celebration of their 100th year, will likely decide the Minor Premiership.
As mentioned above, Donvale looks vulnerable so just based on recent form, the Magpies of Scoresby might head into that clash as favourites.
Predicted Finish: 1st
3. Knox (9-5, 109.27%, 36 Points)
Round 15: Fairpark (A)
Round 16: Coldstream (H)
Round 17: The Basin (H)
Round 18: Donvale (A)
Two games that were decided by one and two points respectively now see Knox in the driver’s seat for the double chance.
The Falcons' two-point win over Oakleigh District, combined with Upper Ferntree Gully’s one-point loss to Silvan means Knox is a game clear in third position.
With a relatively strong run home, I can easily see the Falcons winning three of their last four. Three wins would be enough for a top-three finish unless Upper Ferntree Gully wins out which seems unlikely at this stage.
Huge weekend for Knox and their premiership chances.
Prediction: 3rd
4. Upper Ferntree Gully (8-4, 135.03%, 32 Points)
Round 15: Oakleigh District (H)
Round 16: Donvale (H)
Round 17: Coldstream (A)
Round 18: Scoresby (H)
Heartbreaker, for a second consecutive week, Upper Ferntree Gully have lost by less than a goal. This one hurts even more considering they led for almost the entire afternoon.
Also adding insult to injury, Knox held off Oakleigh District to leapfrog ahead, a game clear with an easier run home.
The only thing that is working in Upper Gully’s favour is their superior percentage.
A tough fixture over the next fortnight will be a great test.
Predicted Finish: 4th
5. Silvan (7-7, 86.55%, 28 Points)
Round 15: Donvale (A)
Round 16: Scoresby (H)
Round 17: Ferntree Gully (A)
Round 18: Coldstream (A)
An extraordinary season... what a comeback to push the Cats back into the top five!
7-1 at home, 0-6 on the road.
Breaking down their last month, if the Cats are to play finals, the dreaded away record must be broken, and they’ll get three attempts to do just that.
They face the top two sides before away trips to Wally Tew Reserve and Coldstream Reserve. With percentage in play, the Cats can't afford to be thumped in either game against Donvale or Scoresby.
Prediction: 7th
6. The Basin (7-6, 83.31%, 28 Points)
Round 15: Ferntree Gully (H)
Round 16: Fairpark (A)
Round 17: Knox (A)
Round 18: Oakleigh District (H)
Silvan’s one-point win saw the Bears drop back to sixth, but no need to panic, three of their last four games are against sides below them.
Nine wins may be the magic number this year to play finals, but there’s every chance that it all comes down to percentage which at this stage is too close to call.
A loss in either of their next two games will see the pressure rise on The Basin. Win both and they’ll control their fate.
Prediction: 5th
7. Oakleigh District (5-9, 88.97%, 20 Points)
Round 15: Upper Ferntree Gully (A)
Round 16: Ferntree Gully (A)
Round 17: Fairpark (H)
Round 18: The Basin (A)
That stings.
Must win out from here, which is certainly possible for this Oakleigh District team. Even then, it might not be enough, depending on both the Cats and Bears who are now two games clear.
The final month of football, Oakleigh enter survival mode with four straight Elimination Finals. Upper Ferntree Gully up first, who are coming off two losses and are in the midst of a minor form slump. If Oakleigh gets Dane Swan back, they’ll be every chance this weekend.
A lot must go right, but if they do make it, look out.
Prediction: 6th
8. Ferntree Gully (5-8, 77.90%, Points)
Round 15: The Basin (A)
Round 16: Oakleigh District (H)
Round 17: Silvan (H)
Round 18: Fairpark (A)
Mathematically alive, but that’s all.
All remaining games can be considered winnable for the Gully, but we said that was the case last weekend against Coldstream and they were well off the pace.
Prediction: 8th
9. Coldstream (3-11, 67.34%, Points)
Round 15: Scoresby (H)
Round 16: Knox (A)
Round 17: Upper Ferntree Gully (H)
Round 18: Silvan (H)
A big win for the Cougars gives the side some breathing room from Fairpark in tenth.
Thanks to a 14 percent buffer, it’s virtually a two-game gap, one more win would almost certainly secure their place in the division.
Prediction: 9th
10. Fairpark (2-12, 53.36%, Points)
Round 15: Knox (H)
Round 16: The Basin (H)
Round 17: Oakleigh District (A)
Round 18: Ferntree Gully (H)
There’s no doubt that this is a much-improved Fairpark outfit, they managed to push the ladder leaders for three quarters.
However, as mentioned above, Coldstream’s win over Ferntree Gully does them no favours. Due to percentage, they’ll need two wins from their last four and hope Coldstream don’t find another win on their run home.
It’s possible but it will be tough.
Prediction: 10th
Division Three Projected First week of Finals:
BYE - Scoresby
Qualifying Final: Donvale v Knox
Elimination Final: Upper Ferntree Gully v The Basin
DIVISION FOUR
1. Chirnside Park (9-2, 169.57%, 36 Points)
Round 14: Kilsyth (A)
Round 15: Whitehorse (H)
Round 16: Warrandyte (H)
Round 17: Kilsyth (A)
Round 18: BYE
Two games clear on top, even after their bye.
Hard to see Chirnside Park missing the double chance from here. They’ll be happy to face potential finals contenders over the next four weeks in preparation for this year’s finals series.
The bye in Round 18 is another factor in itself and how they manage that.
Prediction: 1st
2. Whitehorse (7-4, 110.01%, 28 Points)
Round 14: Forest Hill (H)
Round 15: Chirnside Park (A)
Round 16: Kilsyth (H)
Round 17: Warrandyte (A)
Round 18: Forest Hill (H)
A great win on the weekend with some key personnel on the sidelines, the Pioneers have put themselves back in the driver’s seat for a top-two finish.
No more byes from here on out, plenty of importance on their Round 17 game with Warrandyte with the Bloods their biggest challenger for the double chance.
Just as importantly, they head to Kimberley Reserve in two weeks’ time to play Chirnside Park. After almost conceding a 100-point loss to the Panthers a few weeks ago, they will be eager for a much better performance against the benchmark side.
Prediction: 2nd
3. Warrandyte (7-5, 114.55%, 28 Points)
Round 14: BYE
Round 15: Kilsyth (A)
Round 16: Chirnside Park (A)
Round 17: Whitehorse (H)
Round 18: Croydon North MLOC (H)
This weekend’s loss was more of a reflection on how well the KangaRams have been playing, rather than anything Warrandyte did wrong.
The Bloods had a superb run prior to the game, winning six on the trot. They re-set this weekend with a bye before facing Kilsyth at Pinks Reserve.
If everything goes right, they can finish with a double chance. However, with no easy games left, a challenging final month and a tight division, they aren’t locked into finals yet either.
Prediction: 3rd
4. Kilsyth (6-5, 121.14%, 24 Points)
Round 14: Chirnside Park (H)
Round 15: Warrandyte (H)
Round 16: Whitehorse (A)
Round 17: Chirnside Park (H)
Round 18: Bulleen Templestowe (A)
A nightmare run home for the Cougars.
Not one, but TWO games against ladder leaders Chirnside Park, a return to Springfield Park, and a clash with the Bloods, all make up a season-defining month of football for Kilsyth.
The KangaRams are knocking on the door of the top four and have a better run-home so Kilsyth will need to pull off some unlikely victories if they’re to secure a finals spot this year.
If they make it from this position, they would have more than earned their place.
Prediction: 5th
5. Croydon North MLOC (6-5, 114.55%, 24 Points)
Round 14: Bulleen Templestowe (A)
Round 15: BYE
Round 16: Bulleen Templestowe (H)
Round 17: Forest Hill (A)
Round 18: Warrandyte (A)
They can sense it now! Three in a row for Croydon North MLOC and they are now tied on points with Kilsyth.
Their first-ever win over Warrandyte has given this side a real opportunity to play off in this year’s finals series. Three of their last four are against Bulleen Templestowe and Forest Hill. Dependent on other results but wins those three games and they may secure a top-four spot before their final Home and Away game at Warrandyte Reserve.
It’s been the club’s best season since entering the league but there’s still plenty of work to be done over the next five weeks.
Prediction: 4th
6. Bulleen Templestowe (4-7, 101.67%, 16 Points)
Round 14: Croydon North MLOC (H)
Round 15: Forest Hill (A)
Round 16: Croydon North MLOC (A)
Round 17: BYE
Round 18: Kilsyth (H)
The new kids on the block have now four games in their debut season in the EFNL.
But there’s still opportunities for more to come with all their remaining games winnable for the Bullants. They may not be able to make the finals from here, but they can certainly be a thorn in the side of the KangaRams with two meeting against them in the next three weeks.
Prediction: 6th
7. Forest Hill (0-11, 36.36%, 0 Points)
Round 14: Whitehorse (A)
Round 15: Bulleen Templestowe (H)
Round 16: BYE
Round 17: Croydon North MLOC (H)
Round 18: Whitehorse (A)
Four final games to round out their season, two tough trips to Springfield Park included.
Prediction: 7th
Division Four Projected First week of Finals:
Qualifying Final: Chirnside Park v Whitehorse
Elimination Final: Warrandyte v Croydon North MLOC
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